NYSE: ARW · Technology Distributors
Arrow Electronics (ARW) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Arrow Electronics (ARW) at $229.88 a share. The stock last closed at $177.07, which puts the model's fair value 29.8% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Arrow Electronics, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $234.12 to $229.88 (-1.8%). The companies the model compares it with now trade on lower multiples: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $177.07 is 29.8% below it: Undervalued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 4 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 15% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give ARW?
The calibrated range for ARW over 63 trading days is $151.33 to $214.77. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that ARW's own options imply (53% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $162.46 to $316.99. In 59% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW) is a technology distributor. It provides products, services and strategic solutions to industrial and commercial clients across the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia Pacific.
Faircurve's model puts Arrow Electronics' fair value at $229.88 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $234.12, so the fair value moved -1.8%. The model says this is most of the move: the companies it compares the stock with now trade on lower multiples. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $151.33 to $214.77, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium. It looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Arrow Electronics scores 70 out of 100 on the model's quality measure, a composite of six factors scored against comparable companies. Profitability is 89, with ROIC of 11.2% against a peer median of 10.1%. Growth quality is 80, with trailing revenue growth of 10.5% against a peer median of 6.9%. Earnings quality is 51, with FCF / net income of 1.11x against a peer median of 1.68x. The model compares the stock with TD Synnex Corp (SNX), PC Connection, Inc. (CNXN) and ScanSource, Inc. (SCSC). Avnet, Inc. (AVT) is also compared but has no verdict on this date.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does ARW report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Arrow Electronics's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 9.7% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. ARW's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 15.3% over one month.
On 5 Nov 2026 ARW moved 12.6% in one session, against the 3.1% a day that options had priced: 4.1 times the implied size, around an earnings report.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across ARW's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 8.6%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in ARW
How does ARW score on business quality?
Arrow Electronics's overall quality score is 70 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 89 | 11.2%ROIC | 10.1% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 51 | 1.11xFCF / net income | 1.68x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 80 | 10.5%Revenue growth, trailing | 6.9% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 66 | 1.2%Net buybacks / market value | 3.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 48 | 1.55xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.55x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 55 | 0.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.4 pts |
How does ARW compare with similar companies?
The companies in technology distributors closest to Arrow Electronics in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVT Avnet, Inc. | $76.63 | $86.98 | +13.5% | Low evidence grade |
| SNX TD Synnex Corp | $215.37 | $251.72 | +16.9% | Undervalued |
| CNXN PC Connection, Inc. | $79.67 | $74.09 | -7.0% | Fairly valued |
| SCSC ScanSource, Inc. | $45.07 | $60.52 | +34.3% | Undervalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for ARW, the peer-implied price, is $298.41 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All technology distributor stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Arrow Electronics at a glance
Arrow Electronics, Inc. provides a wide array of products, services, and strategic solutions to industrial and commercial clients across the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia Pacific who depend on electronic components and sophisticated.
- Market value
- $10.6B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Technology Distributors
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $42.9B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +30.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- 1.63
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. ARW was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Arrow Electronics on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for ARW was $234.12. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $229.88, a change of -1.8%. The companies the model compares it with now trade on lower multiples: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Arrow Electronics's valuation
Is Arrow Electronics stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ARW reads as Undervalued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $229.88 a share against a last close of $177.07, a gap of +29.8%.
What is ARW's fair value?
$229.88 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $162.46 to $316.99.
What price range does the model give ARW?
$151.33 to $214.77 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Arrow Electronics report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ARW moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 8.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +14.9% around the report of 5 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ARW is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on ARW
The model holds no idea open on ARW today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on ARW with their outcomes. A free account is enough.