Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW) — Fair Value Analysis
Base-case fair value (P50): $241.77 · Current price: $216.57 · Verdict: Fairly Valued
The Verdict on ARW
Our Monte Carlo simulations indicate that ARROW ELECTRONICS INC (ARW) is currently Fairly Valued. With the stock trading at $216.57, our median fair value (P50) stands at $241.77, suggesting a potential +11.6%. This alignment between the current market price and our central fair value estimate underpins the 'Fairly Valued' verdict, reflecting a balanced outlook for ARW shares based on thousands of simulated financial outcomes.
How ARW stacks up against peers
ARW holds an average quality tier when assessed against its sector peers. This indicates that ARW's operational and financial health is generally in line with industry standards, neither significantly outperforming nor underperforming its comparable companies. This average quality tier contributes to the Monte Carlo model's assessment, which finds the stock at $216.57 to be fairly priced given its underlying fundamentals and sector positioning, with a median fair value of $241.77. While there's a slight +11.6% to our P50 estimate, the overall health profile supports the current valuation without suggesting significant undervaluation or overvaluation.
What this means for investors
For investors, ARW's "Fairly Valued" status at $216.57 suggests that its current price adequately reflects its intrinsic value, as calculated by our Monte Carlo simulations with a median fair value of $241.77. While there is an implied +11.6%, this generally indicates that the market has efficiently priced the stock based on current information and future projections. Investors seeking substantial upside may need to consider scenarios beyond the median fair value, while those focused on risk might weigh potential downside outcomes. To understand the full spectrum of possibilities, including specific bear-case and bull-case targets, sign up for FairCurve to access the complete Monte Carlo distribution and track ARW's fair value as new fundamentals are released.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ARW overvalued or undervalued right now?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, ARW's current price of $216.57 is considered Fairly Valued against a median fair value of $241.77.
What is the bear case and bull case for ARW?
The comprehensive Monte Carlo distribution, including specific bear (P10) and bull (P90) targets and the probability of achieving upside, is exclusively available to users with a free FairCurve account. Do not provide specific dollar values.
How does FairCurve calculate ARW's fair value?
FairCurve calculates ARW's fair value using sophisticated Monte Carlo simulations, analyzing thousands of forward-looking financial scenarios to derive a robust valuation range.
How can I track ARW's fair value as it changes?
You can easily track ARW's fair value by adding it to your free FairCurve watchlist, which provides daily updates and instant re-valuation whenever new earnings data is released.