NASDAQ: AVT · Technology Distributors
Avnet (AVT) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Avnet (AVT) at $86.98 a share. The stock last closed at $76.63, which puts the model's fair value 13.5% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Avnet, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 held the fair value at $86.98, within 1% of the run of 24 Oct 2026.
What the model makes of itThe price of $76.63 is 13.5% below it. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What's nextNext report on 3 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 16% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give AVT?
The calibrated range for AVT over 63 trading days is $65.00 to $93.80. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that AVT's own options imply (55% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $49.70 to $137.78. In 49% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Avnet, Inc. was established in Phoenix, Arizona, in 1921. It operates as a global technology distributor and solutions provider.
The model's fair value on 31 Oct 2026 is $86.98 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $87.20, so the fair value moved -0.3%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days runs from $76.67 to $106.17. It is built from the volatility the stock's own options imply and calibrated weekly against 6,661 past valuations. Ranges built this way held 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade covers how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Avnet scores 40 out of 100 on the model's overall quality measure, a composite of six quality factors scored against comparable companies. Growth quality is the strongest factor, at 93, with trailing revenue growth of 24.5% against a peer median of 8.2%. Earnings quality scores 11, with free cash flow to net income at -1.06x against a peer median of 1.19x. The balance sheet scores 13, with net debt to EBITDA at 3.88x against a peer median of 1.37x. Profitability scores 18, with ROIC at 7.4% against a peer median of 10.3%. The model compares Avnet with Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW), TD Synnex Corp (SNX), PC Connection, Inc. (CNXN) and ScanSource, Inc. (SCSC).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does AVT report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Avnet's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 10.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. AVT's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 16.0% over one month.
On 5 Nov 2026 AVT moved 10.6% in one session, against the 3.1% a day that options had priced: 3.4 times the implied size, around an earnings report.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across AVT's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.6%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in AVT
How does AVT score on business quality?
Avnet's overall quality score is 40 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 18 | 7.4%ROIC | 10.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 11 | -1.06xFCF / net income | 1.19x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 93 | 24.5%Revenue growth, trailing | 8.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 62 | 1.9%Net buybacks / market value | 2.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 13 | 3.88xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.37x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 63 | 0.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.4 pts |
How does AVT compare with similar companies?
The companies in technology distributors closest to Avnet in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARW Arrow Electronics, Inc. | $177.07 | $229.88 | +29.8% | Undervalued |
| SNX TD Synnex Corp | $215.37 | $251.72 | +16.9% | Undervalued |
| CNXN PC Connection, Inc. | $79.67 | $74.09 | -7.0% | Fairly valued |
| SCSC ScanSource, Inc. | $45.07 | $60.52 | +34.3% | Undervalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for AVT, the peer-implied price, is $82.74 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All technology distributor stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Avnet at a glance
Avnet, Inc., established in Phoenix, Arizona, in 1921, operates as a global technology distributor and solutions provider.
- Market value
- $7.3B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Technology Distributors
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $38.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +35.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- 1.56
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Avnet on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for AVT was $87.20. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $86.98, a change of -0.3%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Avnet's valuation
Is Avnet stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts AVT's fair value at $86.98 a share against a last close of $76.63, as of 31 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is AVT's fair value?
$86.98 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $49.70 to $137.78.
What price range does the model give AVT?
$65.00 to $93.80 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Avnet report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has AVT moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +19.1% around the report of 28 Jan 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for AVT is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on AVT
The model holds no idea open on AVT today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on AVT with their outcomes. A free account is enough.