NYSE: ASH · Specialty Chemicals
Ashland (ASH) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 1 Nov 2026, Faircurve's model values Ashland (ASH) at $69.12 a share. The stock last closed at $76.28, which puts the model's fair value 9.4% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Ashland Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 1 Nov 2026 moved the fair value from $67.37 to $69.12 (+2.6%). The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $76.28 is 9.4% above it: Fairly valued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 1 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 10% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give ASH?
The calibrated range for ASH over 63 trading days is $68.89 to $86.45. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that ASH's own options imply (34% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $52.54 to $88.48. In 40% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 1 Nov 2026
Ashland Inc. (ASH) is a Basic Materials company in Specialty Chemicals. It operates as a global supplier of specialized chemicals and additives, through four divisions: Life Sciences; Personal Care & Household; Specialty Additives; and Intermediates and Solvents.
Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $69.12 a share on 1 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $67.37, so the fair value moved +2.6%. In the model's words, the stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $68.07 to $88.14, built around the price. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is High, based on input completeness, comparable companies and outcome width. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Ashland scores 34 out of 100 on the model's composite of six quality factors, measured against comparable companies. Earnings quality stands out at 93, with FCF / net income of 6.21x against a peer median of 0.80x. Profitability and stability both score 0. Profitability shows ROIC of 3.0% against a peer median of 9.4%, and stability shows EBITDA margin downside volatility of 16.9 pts over five years against a peer median of 2.3 pts. The model compares Ashland with Hawkins, Cabot, Avient, H.B. Fuller, Quaker Houghton and Innospec, and with WD-40 and Ingevity, which have no verdict on this date.
Written from the figures on this page for the 1 Nov 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does ASH report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Ashland's next earnings report is scheduled for 1 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 9.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 42 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. ASH's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 9.9% over one month.
How ASH moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.3%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 3 Nov 2026 | +3.0% |
| 28 Jul 2026 | +9.7% |
| 28 Apr 2026 | -14.8% |
| 2 Feb 2026 | -0.1% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | +5.2% |
| 29 Jul 2025 | +4.0% |
| 28 Jan 2025 | -9.8% |
| 7 Nov 2024 | -7.3% |
How does ASH score on business quality?
Ashland's overall quality score is 34 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 0 | 3.0%ROIC | 9.4% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 93 | 6.21xFCF / net income | 0.80x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 30 | -13.7%Revenue growth, trailing | -2.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 25 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 1.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 62 | 2.73xNet debt / EBITDA | 4.11x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 16.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.3 pts |
How does ASH compare with similar companies?
The companies in specialty chemicals closest to Ashland in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HWKN Hawkins, Inc. | $152.00 | $140.14 | -7.8% | Fairly valued |
| CBT Cabot Corp. | $72.97 | $84.77 | +16.2% | Undervalued |
| AVNT Avient Corporation | $45.32 | $41.97 | -7.4% | Fairly valued |
| WDFC WD-40 Company | $227.33 | $205.91 | -9.4% | Low evidence grade |
| FUL H.B. Fuller Company | $50.22 | $56.61 | +12.7% | Fairly valued |
| KWR Quaker Houghton | $152.54 | $131.07 | -14.1% | Fairly valued |
| NGVT Ingevity Corporation | $63.71 | $79.33 | +24.5% | Low evidence grade |
| IOSP Innospec Inc. | $79.13 | $93.25 | +17.8% | Undervalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for ASH, the peer-implied price, is $52.33 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Ashland at a glance
Ashland Inc. operates as a global supplier of specialized chemicals and additives. Its business activities are structured into four main divisions: Life Sciences; Personal Care & Household; Specialty Additives; and Intermediates and Solvents.
- Market value
- $3.4B
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Specialty Chemicals
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.9B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +2.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- 0.72
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. ASH was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Ashland on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for ASH was $67.37. As of 1 Nov 2026 it is $69.12, a change of +2.6%. The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Ashland's valuation
Is Ashland stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ASH reads as Fairly valued as of 1 Nov 2026. The model's fair value is $69.12 a share against a last close of $76.28, a gap of -9.4%.
What is ASH's fair value?
$69.12 a share as of 1 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $52.54 to $88.48.
What price range does the model give ASH?
$68.89 to $86.45 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Ashland report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 1 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ASH moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was -14.8% around the report of 28 Apr 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ASH is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on ASH
The model holds no idea open on ASH today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on ASH with their outcomes. A free account is enough.