NYSE: BA · Aerospace & Defense
Boeing (BA) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 29 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Boeing (BA) at $154.99 a share. The stock last closed at $193.56, which puts the model's fair value 19.9% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. The Boeing Company.
Faircurve Insights · 29 Sep 2026
The Boeing Company is a global aerospace powerhouse specializing in the design, development, manufacture, sale, and comprehensive support of commercial airliners, military aircraft, satellites, missile defense systems, human space flight, and launch.
On 29 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $154.99 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $166.95, and the fair value moved -7.2%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $175.92 to $228.75, which held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade was Medium.
The company's overall quality score was 21 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compared it with Lockheed Martin Corporation, RTX Corporation, Howmet Aerospace Inc., General Dynamics Corporation, Northrop Grumman Corporation, GE Aerospace, and TransDigm Group Incorporated. The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports ranged from +8.5% to -10.4%, with a median size of 3.7%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 29 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give BA?
The calibrated range for BA over 63 trading days is $175.92 to $228.75. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that BA's own options imply (37% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $111.20 to $209.76. In 31% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does BA score on business quality?
Boeing's overall quality score is 21 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 5 | -10.5%ROIC | 9.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 0 | -0.09xFCF / net income | 1.25x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 90 | 34.5%Revenue growth, trailing | 6.9% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 8 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 1.5% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 6 | 5.56xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.14x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 5.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.1 pts |
How does BA compare with similar companies?
The companies in aerospace & defense closest to Boeing in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LMT Lockheed Martin Corporation | $505.41 | $561.30 | +11.1% | Fairly valued |
| RTX RTX Corporation | $184.68 | $181.17 | -1.9% | Fairly valued |
| HWM Howmet Aerospace Inc. | $231.27 | $191.84 | -17.0% | Overvalued |
| GD General Dynamics Corporation | $330.09 | $355.70 | +7.8% | Fairly valued |
| NOC Northrop Grumman Corporation | $478.00 | $521.95 | +9.2% | Fairly valued |
| GE GE Aerospace | $309.56 | $309.04 | -0.2% | Fairly valued |
| TDG TransDigm Group Incorporated | $1,090.38 | $1,318.01 | +20.9% | Undervalued |
| HONA Honeywell Aerospace Inc | $154.63 | $179.43 | +16.0% | Data under review |
When does BA report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Boeing's next earnings report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 4.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. BA's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 10.7% over one month.
On 28 Sep 2026 BA moved 6.9% in one session, against the 2.0% a day that options had priced: 3.5 times the implied size.
How BA moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 28 Jul 2026 | +1.2% |
| 22 Apr 2026 | +6.8% |
| 27 Jan 2026 | -2.8% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | -10.4% |
| 29 Jul 2025 | -4.5% |
| 23 Apr 2025 | +8.5% |
| 28 Jan 2025 | -0.9% |
| 23 Oct 2024 | -2.9% |
Boeing at a glance
The Boeing Company is a global aerospace powerhouse specializing in the design, development, manufacture, sale, and comprehensive support of commercial airliners, military aircraft, satellites, missile defense systems, human space flight, and launch.
- Market value
- $156.5B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Aerospace & Defense
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $108.9B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +9.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 16
- Beta to the US market
- 1.07
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Boeing on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for BA was $166.95. As of 29 Sep 2026 it is $154.99, a change of -7.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Boeing's valuation
Is Boeing stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, BA reads as Overvalued as of 29 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $154.99 a share against a last close of $193.56, a gap of -19.9%.
What is BA's fair value?
$154.99 a share as of 29 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $111.20 to $209.76.
What price range does the model give BA?
$175.92 to $228.75 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Boeing report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has BA moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was -10.4% around the report of 29 Oct 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for BA is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.