NASDAQ: HONA · Aerospace & Defense
Honeywell Aerospace (HONA) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Honeywell Aerospace (HONA) at $185.60 a share. The stock last closed at $149.59, which puts the model's fair value 24.1% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Honeywell Aerospace Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $181.26 to $185.60 (+2.4%). Analysts raised their next-twelve-month EBITDA estimates: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $149.59 is 24.1% below it: Undervalued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 27 Jan 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 14% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give HONA?
The calibrated range for HONA over 63 trading days is $129.59 to $178.43. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that HONA's own options imply (48% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $136.05 to $247.56. In 69% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Honeywell Aerospace, Inc. (HONA) engages in aerospace and defence critical systems and technologies. It operates through Electronic Solutions, Engines & Power Systems, and Control Systems.
Faircurve's model puts Honeywell Aerospace's fair value at $185.60 a share on 31 Oct 2026. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $181.26, so the fair value moved +2.4%. The model's reason, in its own words: "Analysts raised their next-twelve-month EBITDA estimates: most of the move." The calibrated range over 63 trading days runs from $107.41 to $248.12. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium, based on input completeness, comparable companies and the spread of outcomes.
The model scores Honeywell Aerospace 66 out of 100 on quality against comparable companies. Profitability scores 92, with ROIC of 21.9% against a peer median of 13.9%. Earnings quality scores 90, with FCF / net income of 1.21x against a peer median of 0.86x. The balance sheet scores 21, with net debt / EBITDA of 3.69x against a peer median of 1.71x. The comparison set is L3Harris, TransDigm, Axon Enterprise, Northrop Grumman, Howmet Aerospace, General Dynamics, Woodward and Curtiss-Wright.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does HONA report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Honeywell Aerospace's next earnings report is scheduled for 27 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 8.1% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. HONA's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 13.9% over one month.
Around its last 2 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
What the options market has priced for a month's move in HONA
How does HONA score on business quality?
Honeywell Aerospace's overall quality score is 66 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 92 | 21.9%ROIC | 13.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 90 | 1.21xFCF / net income | 0.86x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 55 | 12.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 11.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 27 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 1.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 21 | 3.69xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.71x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 42 | 2.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.8 pts |
How does HONA compare with similar companies?
The companies in aerospace & defense closest to Honeywell Aerospace in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LHX L3Harris Technologies, Inc. | $258.11 | $278.09 | +7.7% | Fairly valued |
| TDG TransDigm Group Incorporated | $1,189.19 | $1,217.60 | +2.4% | Fairly valued |
| AXON Axon Enterprise, Inc. | $382.56 | $404.71 | +5.8% | Fairly valued |
| NOC Northrop Grumman Corporation | $525.25 | $574.55 | +9.4% | Fairly valued |
| HWM Howmet Aerospace Inc. | $200.90 | $190.77 | -5.0% | Fairly valued |
| GD General Dynamics Corporation | $356.35 | $390.92 | +9.7% | Fairly valued |
| WWD Woodward, Inc. | $306.86 | $286.93 | -6.5% | Fairly valued |
| CW Curtiss-Wright Corporation | $433.87 | $495.22 | +14.1% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for HONA, the peer-implied price, is $233.43 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Honeywell Aerospace at a glance
Honeywell Aerospace, Inc. engages in the provision of aerospace and defense critical systems and technologies. It operates through the following segments: Electronic Solutions, Engines & Power Systems, and Control Systems.
- Market value
- $48.9B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Aerospace & Defense
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $19.6B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +5.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 7
- First valued by Faircurve
- 8 Aug 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. HONA was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Honeywell Aerospace on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for HONA was $181.26. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $185.60, a change of +2.4%. Analysts raised their next-twelve-month EBITDA estimates: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Honeywell Aerospace's valuation
Is Honeywell Aerospace stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, HONA reads as Undervalued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $185.60 a share against a last close of $149.59, a gap of +24.1%.
What is HONA's fair value?
$185.60 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $136.05 to $247.56.
What price range does the model give HONA?
$129.59 to $178.43 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Honeywell Aerospace report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 27 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for HONA is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on HONA
The model holds no idea open on HONA today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on HONA with their outcomes. A free account is enough.