NASDAQ: ENPH · Solar
Enphase Energy (ENPH) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 1 Nov 2026, Faircurve's model values Enphase Energy (ENPH) at $23.81 a share. The stock last closed at $28.97, which puts the model's fair value 17.8% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Enphase Energy, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 1 Nov 2026 moved the fair value from $30.98 to $23.81 (-23.1%).
What the model makes of itThe price of $28.97 is 17.8% above it: Overvalued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 2 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 23% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give ENPH?
The calibrated range for ENPH over 63 trading days is $22.94 to $38.59. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that ENPH's own options imply (79% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $16.22 to $34.14. In 43% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 1 Nov 2026
Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH) develops, manufactures and distributes home energy solutions for the global solar photovoltaic industry. It sits in the Energy sector, in Solar.
The model's fair value is $23.81 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations, from the run on 1 Nov 2026. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $30.98, so the fair value moved -23.1%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $23.97 to $40.76, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply. Calibrated weekly against realised prices from 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026, ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium. It reflects the completeness of inputs, the number and agreement of comparable companies, and the width of outcomes, not whether the fair value is right.
The model's overall quality score for Enphase is 56 out of 100 against comparable companies. Stability scores 100, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 2.8 pts against a peer median of 9.9 pts. Capital discipline scores 75, with net buybacks at 0.6% of market value against a peer median of 0.0%. Growth quality scores 35, with trailing revenue growth of 10.7% against a peer median of 17.5%. The model compares the company with SolarEdge Technologies, Inc. (SEDG), Nextpower Inc. (NXT) and First Solar, Inc. (FSLR). Sunrun Inc. (RUN) is also a comparable company, with no verdict on this date.
Written from the figures on this page for the 1 Nov 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does ENPH report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Enphase Energy's next earnings report is scheduled for 2 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 10.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 7 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. ENPH's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 22.7% over one month.
On 3 Nov 2026 ENPH moved 8.9% in one session, against the 4.4% a day that options had priced: 2.0 times the implied size.
How ENPH moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 12.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 27 Oct 2026 | -17.7% |
| 28 Jul 2026 | -7.7% |
| 28 Apr 2026 | -11.5% |
| 3 Feb 2026 | +41.7% |
| 28 Oct 2025 | -15.4% |
| 22 Jul 2025 | -8.0% |
| 4 Feb 2025 | +2.1% |
| 22 Oct 2024 | -13.2% |
How does ENPH score on business quality?
Enphase Energy's overall quality score is 56 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 33 | 3.5%ROIC | 5.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 73 | 1.49xFCF / net income | 0.47x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 35 | 10.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 17.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 75 | 0.6%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 71 | 1.38xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.73x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 100 | 2.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 9.9 pts |
How does ENPH compare with similar companies?
The companies in solar closest to Enphase Energy in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEDG SolarEdge Technologies, Inc. | $26.20 | $28.46 | +8.6% | Fairly valued |
| RUN Sunrun Inc. | $9.87 | $15.68 | +58.9% | Low evidence grade |
| NXT Nextpower Inc. | $99.58 | $88.92 | -10.7% | Fairly valued |
| FSLR First Solar, Inc. | $195.76 | $215.58 | +10.1% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for ENPH, the peer-implied price, is $18.03 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Enphase Energy at a glance
Enphase Energy, Inc., along with its subsidiaries, is dedicated to developing, manufacturing, and distributing home energy solutions for the global solar photovoltaic industry.
- Market value
- $3.4B
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Solar
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -23.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 12
- Beta to the US market
- 2.31
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. ENPH was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Enphase Energy on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for ENPH was $30.98. As of 1 Nov 2026 it is $23.81, a change of -23.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Enphase Energy's valuation
Is Enphase Energy stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ENPH reads as Overvalued as of 1 Nov 2026. The model's fair value is $23.81 a share against a last close of $28.97, a gap of -17.8%.
What is ENPH's fair value?
$23.81 a share as of 1 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $16.22 to $34.14.
What price range does the model give ENPH?
$22.94 to $38.59 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Enphase Energy report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 2 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ENPH moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 12.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was +41.7% around the report of 3 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ENPH is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on ENPH
The model holds no idea open on ENPH today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on ENPH with their outcomes. A free account is enough.