NASDAQ: RUN ยท Solar
Sunrun (RUN) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Sunrun (RUN) at $15.68 a share. The stock last closed at $8.68, which puts the model's fair value 80.6% above the price. The fair value sits more than 60% away from the price. Faircurve gives no verdict on a gap wider than 60%.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Sunrun Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $15.12 to $15.68 (+3.7%). The companies the model compares it with now trade on higher multiples: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $8.68 is 80.6% below it. The fair value sits more than 60% away from the price. Faircurve gives no verdict on a gap wider than 60%.
What's nextReports on 4 Nov 2026. Options expiring after the report price a move of about 24% either way. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give RUN?
The calibrated range for RUN over 63 trading days is $6.06 to $13.49. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that RUN's own options imply (121% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $0.00 to $36.21. In 64% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
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When does RUN report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Sunrun's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 4 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 23.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 8 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. RUN's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 34.8% over one month.
Around its last 5 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across RUN's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 14.5%.
Earlier reports are left out: the options record before 28 Jun 2025 is not comparable.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in RUN
How does RUN score on business quality?
Sunrun's overall quality score is 25 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 22 | 0.5%ROIC | 7.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 0 | -17.10xFCF / net income | 0.56x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 76 | 45.1%Revenue growth, trailing | 10.9% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 21 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 0 | 16.36xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.34x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 17 | 52.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 7.2 pts |
How does RUN compare with similar companies?
The companies in solar closest to Sunrun in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEDG SolarEdge Technologies, Inc. | $32.88 | $28.46 | -13.4% | Fairly valued |
| ENPH Enphase Energy, Inc. | $30.42 | $23.81 | -21.7% | Overvalued |
| NXT Nextpower Inc. | $96.02 | $88.92 | -7.4% | Fairly valued |
| FSLR First Solar, Inc. | $185.90 | $215.58 | +16.0% | Undervalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for RUN, the peer-implied price, is $39.53 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Sunrun at a glance
Sunrun Inc. is a company operating in the United States that specializes in providing comprehensive residential solar energy solutions.
- Market value
- $1.8B
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Solar
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $3.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +5.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 9
- Beta to the US market
- 2.46
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Sunrun on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for RUN was $15.12. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $15.68, a change of +3.7%. The companies the model compares it with now trade on higher multiples: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Sunrun's valuation
Is Sunrun stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts RUN's fair value at $15.68 a share against a last close of $8.68, as of 31 Oct 2026. The fair value sits more than 60% away from the price. Faircurve gives no verdict on a gap wider than 60%.
What is RUN's fair value?
$15.68 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $0.00 to $36.21.
What price range does the model give RUN?
$6.06 to $13.49 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Sunrun report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has RUN moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 14.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was -32.2% around the report of 26 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for RUN is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on RUN
The model holds no idea open on RUN today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on RUN with their outcomes. A free account is enough.