NASDAQ: HLNE · Asset Management
Hamilton Lane (HLNE) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Hamilton Lane (HLNE) at $117.74 a share. The stock last closed at $90.13, which puts the model's fair value 30.6% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Hamilton Lane Incorporated.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $110.71 to $117.74 (+6.3%). The model's quality adjustment to the peer multiple moved, lifting the fair value: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $90.13 is 30.6% below it: Undervalued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 2 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 13% either way over the next month. On the model's Peer Discount list since 29 Oct 2026 (a strategy with an early record). The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give HLNE?
The calibrated range for HLNE over 63 trading days is $78.45 to $106.88. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that HLNE's own options imply (47% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $93.53 to $146.96. In 90% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Hamilton Lane Incorporated (HLNE) operates as an investment management firm, specialising in direct investments and fund-of-funds strategies.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $117.74 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $110.71, so the fair value moved +6.3%. In the model's own words, the quality adjustment to the peer multiple moved, lifting the fair value: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $82.27 to $113.34, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is High, based on input completeness, the number and agreement of comparable companies and the width of outcomes. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The model scores the business at 67 out of 100 on quality against comparable companies. Profitability stands out at 87, with ROIC of 18.3% against a peer median of 7.8%. Balance sheet scores 86, with net debt to EBITDA of 0.05x against a peer median of 5.84x. The comparable companies are Federated Hermes, Inc. (FHI), Cohen & Steers, Inc. (CNS), Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. (VCTR), Acadian Asset Management (AAMI), WisdomTree, Inc. (WT) and Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. (APAM).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does HLNE report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Hamilton Lane's next earnings report is scheduled for 2 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 12.6% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 42 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. HLNE's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 13.5% over one month.
On 4 Nov 2026 HLNE moved 7.2% in one session, against the 3.2% a day that options had priced: 2.2 times the implied size, around an earnings report.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across HLNE's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.2%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in HLNE
How does HLNE score on business quality?
Hamilton Lane's overall quality score is 67 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 87 | 18.3%ROIC | 7.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 81 | 1.42xFCF / net income | 1.01x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 53 | 6.5%Revenue growth, trailing | 19.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 27 | 1.6%Net buybacks / market value | 2.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 86 | 0.05xNet debt / EBITDA | 5.84x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 27 | 7.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 5.4 pts |
How does HLNE compare with similar companies?
The companies in asset management closest to Hamilton Lane in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HASI HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc. | $39.68 | $37.11 | -6.5% | Low evidence grade |
| FHI Federated Hermes, Inc. | $64.04 | $72.19 | +12.7% | Fairly valued |
| STEP StepStone Group Inc. | $42.81 | $38.68 | -9.6% | Low evidence grade |
| CNS Cohen & Steers, Inc. | $73.23 | $68.11 | -7.0% | Fairly valued |
| VCTR Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. | $112.41 | $134.30 | +19.5% | Undervalued |
| AAMI Acadian Asset Management | $91.79 | $105.07 | +14.5% | Fairly valued |
| WT WisdomTree, Inc. | $19.01 | $16.48 | -13.3% | Fairly valued |
| APAM Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. | $39.78 | $44.10 | +10.9% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for HLNE, the peer-implied price, is $170.08 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Hamilton Lane at a glance
Hamilton Lane Incorporated operates as an investment management firm, specializing in both direct investments and fund-of-funds strategies.
- Market value
- $4.7B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Asset Management
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +25.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- 0.96
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. HLNE was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Hamilton Lane on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for HLNE was $110.71. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $117.74, a change of +6.3%. The model's quality adjustment to the peer multiple moved, lifting the fair value: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Hamilton Lane's valuation
Is Hamilton Lane stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, HLNE reads as Undervalued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $117.74 a share against a last close of $90.13, a gap of +30.6%.
What is HLNE's fair value?
$117.74 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $93.53 to $146.96.
What price range does the model give HLNE?
$78.45 to $106.88 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Hamilton Lane report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 2 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has HLNE moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was +8.1% around the report of 3 Nov 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for HLNE is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on HLNE
The model has an idea open on HLNE under Peer Discount since 29 Oct 2026, a strategy with an early record. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on HLNE with their outcomes. A free account is enough.