NASDAQ: VCTR · Asset Management
Victory Capital (VCTR) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Victory Capital (VCTR) at $154.34 a share. The stock last closed at $113.23, which puts the model's fair value 36.3% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Victory Capital Holdings, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. operates as a global asset management enterprise, along with its various subsidiaries.
Faircurve's model on 26 Sep 2026 found a fair value of $154.34 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $155.13, so the fair value moved -0.5%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $129.49 to $188.19, built from the fair value since there is no live options data for the stock, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is High.
The overall quality score is 71 out of 100 against comparable companies, including StepStone Group Inc. and Hamilton Lane Incorporated. Profitability scored 69, with ROIC at 17.0% against a peer median of 7.8%. Revenue growth, trailing 46.2% against a peer median of 8.1%, gave a Growth quality score of 89. Moves around the last 8 earnings reports ranged from +10.5% to -2.0%, with a median size of 3.5% ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give VCTR?
The calibrated range for VCTR over 63 trading days is $129.49 to $188.19. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 30%+ above price, the calibrated range has held the price 29% of the time over 63 trading days, and 71% ended below it; the typical move was +5.7%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $126.02 to $186.22. In 93% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does VCTR score on business quality?
Victory Capital's overall quality score is 71 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 69 | 17.0%ROIC | 7.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 60 | 1.22xFCF / net income | 0.85x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 89 | 46.2%Revenue growth, trailing | 8.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 54 | 5.7%Net buybacks / market value | 1.7% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 69 | 1.26xNet debt / EBITDA | 5.25x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 77 | 2.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.9 pts |
How does VCTR compare with similar companies?
The companies in asset management closest to Victory Capital in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STEP StepStone Group Inc. | $45.27 | $37.61 | -16.9% | Overvalued |
| HLNE Hamilton Lane Incorporated | $87.04 | $115.12 | +32.3% | Undervalued |
| AMG Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | $371.43 | $492.72 | +32.7% | Undervalued |
| HASI HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc. | $36.27 | $36.36 | +0.2% | Low evidence grade |
| FHI Federated Hermes, Inc. | $56.07 | $70.72 | +26.1% | Undervalued |
| CNS Cohen & Steers, Inc. | $73.00 | $73.55 | +0.8% | Fairly valued |
| WT WisdomTree, Inc. | $24.38 | $19.97 | -18.1% | Overvalued |
| SEIC SEI Investments Company | $102.43 | $112.13 | +9.5% | Fairly valued |
When does VCTR report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Victory Capital's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 10.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How VCTR moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | +4.1% |
| 6 May 2026 | +3.0% |
| 4 Feb 2026 | +0.6% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | -2.0% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | +1.9% |
| 8 May 2025 | +6.6% |
| 6 Feb 2025 | +7.4% |
| 8 Nov 2024 | +10.5% |
Victory Capital at a glance
Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. operates as a global asset management enterprise, along with its various subsidiaries.
- Market value
- $6.8B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Asset Management
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.7B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +25.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 4
- Beta to the US market
- 1.05
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Victory Capital on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for VCTR was $155.13. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $154.34, a change of -0.5%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Victory Capital's valuation
Is Victory Capital stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, VCTR reads as Undervalued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $154.34 a share against a last close of $113.23, a gap of +36.3%.
What is VCTR's fair value?
$154.34 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $126.02 to $186.22.
What price range does the model give VCTR?
$129.49 to $188.19 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Victory Capital report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has VCTR moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was +10.5% around the report of 8 Nov 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for VCTR is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.