NASDAQ: ICUI · Medical Instruments & Supplies
ICU Medical (ICUI) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values ICU Medical (ICUI) at $194.95 a share. The stock last closed at $159.38, which puts the model's fair value 22.3% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. ICU Medical, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
ICU Medical, Inc., operating globally through its subsidiaries, is a medical technology firm that specializes in the development, manufacture, and sale of devices for both infusion therapy and critical care.
Faircurve's model on 3 Oct 2026 found a fair value of $194.95 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This was a move of +2.1% since the previous run, which gave $191.03. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $162.65 to $236.34, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model’s evidence grade was Medium.
The company scored 41 out of 100 on overall quality against comparable companies. Its earnings quality scored 80, with FCF / net income at 5.08x. ICU Medical, Inc. is compared with Merit Medical Systems, Inc., AptarGroup, Inc., BioLife Solutions, Inc., LeMaitre Vascular, Inc., DENTSPLY SIRONA Inc., and Repligen Corporation. The stock moved around its last 8 earnings reports, with a median size, ignoring direction, of 7.9%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give ICUI?
The calibrated range for ICUI over 63 trading days is $162.65 to $236.34. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 15 to 30% above price, the calibrated range has held the price 50% of the time over 63 trading days, and 48% ended below it; the typical move was +3.7%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $125.75 to $287.61. In 65% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does ICUI score on business quality?
ICU Medical's overall quality score is 41 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 30 | 2.3%ROIC | 7.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 80 | 5.08xFCF / net income | 1.47x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 14 | -6.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 4.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 63 | 0.2%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 21 | 3.27xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.16x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 50 | 4.1 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.7 pts |
How does ICUI compare with similar companies?
The companies in medical instruments & supplies closest to ICU Medical in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVST Envista Holdings Corp | $23.46 | $22.78 | -2.9% | Low evidence grade |
| MMSI Merit Medical Systems, Inc. | $85.37 | $86.81 | +1.7% | Fairly valued |
| TFX Teleflex Incorporated | $124.12 | $127.42 | +2.7% | Low evidence grade |
| ATR AptarGroup, Inc. | $119.91 | $119.55 | -0.3% | Fairly valued |
| BLFS BioLife Solutions, Inc. | $37.30 | $34.62 | -7.2% | Fairly valued |
| LMAT LeMaitre Vascular, Inc. | $78.96 | $73.59 | -6.8% | Fairly valued |
| XRAY DENTSPLY SIRONA Inc. | $8.67 | $13.42 | +54.8% | Undervalued |
| RGEN Repligen Corporation | $181.70 | $144.11 | -20.7% | Overvalued |
All medical instruments & supplies stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does ICUI report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
ICU Medical's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 11.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How ICUI moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.9%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | +10.9% |
| 7 May 2026 | +5.7% |
| 19 Feb 2026 | +3.6% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | +10.0% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | -11.1% |
| 8 May 2025 | -14.9% |
| 27 Feb 2025 | -5.1% |
| 12 Nov 2024 | -1.9% |
ICU Medical at a glance
ICU Medical, Inc., operating globally through its subsidiaries, is a medical technology firm that specializes in the development, manufacture, and sale of devices for both infusion therapy and critical care.
- Market value
- $4.0B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Medical Instruments & Supplies
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -1.9%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- 0.87
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices ICU Medical on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for ICUI was $191.03. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $194.95, a change of +2.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about ICU Medical's valuation
Is ICU Medical stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ICUI reads as Undervalued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $194.95 a share against a last close of $159.38, a gap of +22.3%.
What is ICUI's fair value?
$194.95 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $125.75 to $287.61.
What price range does the model give ICUI?
$162.65 to $236.34 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does ICU Medical report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ICUI moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was -14.9% around the report of 8 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ICUI is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.