NASDAQ: MMSI · Medical Instruments & Supplies
Merit Medical Systems (MMSI) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 28 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Merit Medical Systems (MMSI) at $88.67 a share. The stock last closed at $85.37, which puts the model's fair value 3.9% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Merit Medical Systems, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 28 Sep 2026
Merit Medical Systems, Inc. (MMSI) is engaged in the design, development, manufacturing, and worldwide commercialization of disposable medical products.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $88.67 a share on 28 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved +1.4% since the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $87.45. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $74.39 to $108.12, built from the fair value. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is High.
The business has an overall quality score of 71 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with ICU Medical, Inc. (ICUI), AptarGroup, Inc. (ATR), Avantor, Inc. (AVTR), Repligen Corporation (RGEN), The Cooper Companies, Inc. (COO), and Baxter International Inc. (BAX). Around its last 8 earnings reports, the stock moved by a median of 3.0%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 28 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give MMSI?
The calibrated range for MMSI over 63 trading days is $74.39 to $108.12. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $68.29 to $113.74. In 52% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does MMSI score on business quality?
Merit Medical Systems's overall quality score is 71 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 75 | 7.3%ROIC | 3.2% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 92 | 1.40xFCF / net income | 1.16x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 66 | 11.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 3.0% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 38 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 72 | 1.03xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.08x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 60 | 2.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.9 pts |
How does MMSI compare with similar companies?
The companies in medical instruments & supplies closest to Merit Medical Systems in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TFX Teleflex Incorporated | $124.12 | $125.37 | +1.0% | Low evidence grade |
| ICUI ICU Medical, Inc. | $159.38 | $191.03 | +19.9% | Undervalued |
| NVST Envista Holdings Corp | $23.46 | $23.26 | -0.9% | Low evidence grade |
| ATR AptarGroup, Inc. | $119.91 | $120.42 | +0.4% | Fairly valued |
| AVTR Avantor, Inc. | $15.34 | $18.04 | +17.6% | Undervalued |
| RGEN Repligen Corporation | $181.70 | $150.23 | -17.3% | Overvalued |
| COO The Cooper Companies, Inc. | $56.91 | $56.76 | -0.3% | Fairly valued |
| BAX Baxter International Inc. | $23.49 | $23.91 | +1.8% | Fairly valued |
All medical instruments & supplies stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does MMSI report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Merit Medical Systems's next earnings report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 9.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How MMSI moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.0%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | +5.2% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | -4.4% |
| 24 Feb 2026 | -2.9% |
| 30 Oct 2025 | +7.6% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | +2.4% |
| 24 Apr 2025 | -3.0% |
| 25 Feb 2025 | -3.0% |
| 30 Oct 2024 | +2.9% |
Merit Medical Systems at a glance
Merit Medical Systems, Inc. (MMSI) is engaged in the design, development, manufacturing, and worldwide commercialization of disposable medical products.
- Market value
- $5.2B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Medical Instruments & Supplies
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.7B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +8.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 7
- Beta to the US market
- 0.38
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Merit Medical Systems on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for MMSI was $87.45. As of 28 Sep 2026 it is $88.67, a change of +1.4%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Merit Medical Systems's valuation
Is Merit Medical Systems stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, MMSI reads as Fairly valued as of 28 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $88.67 a share against a last close of $85.37, a gap of +3.9%.
What is MMSI's fair value?
$88.67 a share as of 28 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $68.29 to $113.74.
What price range does the model give MMSI?
$74.39 to $108.12 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Merit Medical Systems report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has MMSI moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was +7.6% around the report of 30 Oct 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MMSI is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.