NYSE: IIIN · Metal Fabrication
Insteel Industries (IIIN) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Insteel Industries (IIIN) at $31.89 a share. The stock last closed at $29.56, which puts the model's fair value 7.9% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Insteel Industries, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Insteel Industries, Inc., along with its various subsidiaries, focuses on the manufacturing and commercialization of steel wire reinforcement products specifically for concrete construction applications.
Faircurve's model valued Insteel Industries, Inc. on 3 Oct 2026 at $31.89 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 26 Sep 2026, gave $31.94, so the fair value moved -0.2%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $26.61 to $38.66, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is Medium.
The company's overall quality score is 61 out of 100, against comparable companies Gibraltar Industries, Inc., Worthington Industries, Inc., Mueller Industries, Inc., and ATI Inc. Profitability scores 80, with ROIC 10.2% against a peer median of 3.0%. Earnings quality scores 7, with FCF / net income -0.33x. Growth quality scores 90, with revenue growth, trailing 22.4%, against a peer median of -6.6%. Capital discipline scores 58, with net buybacks / market value 0.5%, against a peer median of 3.1%. Balance sheet scores 94, with net debt / EBITDA -0.33x, against a peer median of 5.72x. Stability scores 26, with EBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y 3.3 pts, against a peer median of 2.4 pts. The stock's median move around its last 8 earnings reports was 8.0%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give IIIN?
The calibrated range for IIIN over 63 trading days is $26.61 to $38.66. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $20.06 to $49.83. In 55% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does IIIN score on business quality?
Insteel Industries's overall quality score is 61 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 80 | 10.2%ROIC | 3.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 7 | -0.33xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 90 | 22.4%Revenue growth, trailing | -6.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 58 | 0.5%Net buybacks / market value | 3.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 94 | -0.33xNet debt / EBITDA | 5.72x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 26 | 3.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.4 pts |
How does IIIN compare with similar companies?
The companies in metal fabrication closest to Insteel Industries in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROCK Gibraltar Industries, Inc. | $40.15 | $32.82 | -18.3% | Overvalued |
| WOR Worthington Industries, Inc. | $60.66 | $58.60 | -3.4% | Fairly valued |
| MLI Mueller Industries, Inc. | $62.56 | $81.71 | +30.6% | Undervalued |
| ATI ATI Inc. | $192.42 | $172.47 | -10.4% | Fairly valued |
When does IIIN report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Insteel Industries's next earnings report is scheduled for 15 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How IIIN moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 8.0%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 16 Jul 2026 | +4.6% |
| 16 Apr 2026 | -28.4% |
| 15 Jan 2026 | +1.9% |
| 16 Oct 2025 | -17.8% |
| 17 Jul 2025 | -6.0% |
| 17 Apr 2025 | +37.2% |
| 16 Jan 2025 | +8.7% |
| 17 Oct 2024 | -7.3% |
Insteel Industries at a glance
Insteel Industries, Inc., along with its various subsidiaries, focuses on the manufacturing and commercialization of steel wire reinforcement products specifically for concrete construction applications.
- Market value
- $572M
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Metal Fabrication
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $794M
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +12.9%
- Analysts with estimates
- 1
- Beta to the US market
- 0.99
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Insteel Industries on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for IIIN was $31.94. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $31.89, a change of -0.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Insteel Industries's valuation
Is Insteel Industries stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, IIIN reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $31.89 a share against a last close of $29.56, a gap of +7.9%.
What is IIIN's fair value?
$31.89 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $20.06 to $49.83.
What price range does the model give IIIN?
$26.61 to $38.66 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Insteel Industries report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 15 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has IIIN moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 8.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was +37.2% around the report of 17 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for IIIN is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.