NYSE: MLI · Metal Fabrication
Mueller Industries (MLI) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Mueller Industries (MLI) at $74.79 a share. The stock last closed at $52.44, which puts the model's fair value 42.6% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Mueller Industries, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 held the fair value at $74.79, within 1% of the run of 24 Oct 2026.
What the model makes of itThe price of $52.44 is 42.6% below it: Undervalued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 9 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 10% either way over the next month. On the model's Scorecard Leaders list since 30 Oct 2026 (a strategy with a proving record). The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give MLI?
The calibrated range for MLI over 63 trading days is $47.51 to $59.21. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that MLI's own options imply (33% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $63.38 to $87.64. In 95% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Mueller Industries, Inc. is a global manufacturer and distributor of products made from copper, brass, aluminum and plastic. It was established in 1917 and is based in Collierville, Tennessee.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $74.79 a share on 31 Oct 2026. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $74.29, so the fair value moved +0.7%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $50.46 to $62.51. It is built around the price implied by the stock's own options volatility and is calibrated weekly against realised prices, using 6,661 past valuations. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence High. That grade reflects how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The model gives the company an overall quality score of 69 out of 100, a composite of six quality factors scored against comparable companies. Profitability scores 100, with ROIC at 36.9% against a peer median of 14.0%. Balance sheet also scores 100, with net debt to EBITDA at -1.17x against a peer median of 1.49x. Growth quality scores 96, with trailing revenue growth at 10.9% against a peer median of 5.8%. Earnings quality scores 0, with FCF to net income at 0.46x against a peer median of 1.09x. The model compares the company with ATI Inc., Worthington Industries, Inc., Gibraltar Industries, Inc. and Insteel Industries, Inc.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does MLI report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Mueller Industries's next earnings report is scheduled for 9 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 9.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 42 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. MLI's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 9.6% over one month.
On 5 Nov 2026 MLI moved 5.0% in one session, against the 2.0% a day that options had priced: 2.5 times the implied size.
Around its last 2 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across MLI's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.5%.
Earlier reports are left out: the options record is on a different share basis.
How does MLI score on business quality?
Mueller Industries's overall quality score is 69 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 36.9%ROIC | 14.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 0 | 0.46xFCF / net income | 1.09x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 96 | 10.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 5.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 79 | 1.7%Net buybacks / market value | 1.3% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 100 | -1.17xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.49x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 18 | 2.2 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.5 pts |
How does MLI compare with similar companies?
The companies in metal fabrication closest to Mueller Industries in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATI ATI Inc. | $168.34 | $156.71 | -6.9% | Fairly valued |
| WOR Worthington Industries, Inc. | $61.22 | $57.24 | -6.5% | Fairly valued |
| ROCK Gibraltar Industries, Inc. | $31.69 | $32.89 | +3.8% | Fairly valued |
| IIIN Insteel Industries, Inc. | $26.94 | $30.58 | +13.5% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for MLI, the peer-implied price, is $115.06 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Mueller Industries at a glance
Mueller Industries, Inc., established in 1917 and based in Collierville, Tennessee, is a global manufacturer and distributor of various products crafted from copper, brass, aluminum, and plastic.
- Market value
- $11.9B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Metal Fabrication
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $5.7B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +24.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 1
- Beta to the US market
- 1.00
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. MLI was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Mueller Industries on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for MLI was $74.29. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $74.79, a change of +0.7%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Mueller Industries's valuation
Is Mueller Industries stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, MLI reads as Undervalued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $74.79 a share against a last close of $52.44, a gap of +42.6%.
What is MLI's fair value?
$74.79 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $63.38 to $87.64.
What price range does the model give MLI?
$47.51 to $59.21 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Mueller Industries report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 9 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has MLI moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was -17.6% around the report of 3 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MLI is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on MLI
The model has an idea open on MLI under Scorecard Leaders since 30 Oct 2026, a strategy with a proving record. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on MLI with their outcomes. A free account is enough.