NASDAQ: IPGP · Semiconductors
IPG Photonics (IPGP) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values IPG Photonics (IPGP) at $64.36 a share. The stock last closed at $62.03, which puts the model's fair value 3.8% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. IPG Photonics Corporation.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $61.72 to $64.36 (+4.3%). The companies the model compares it with now trade on higher multiples: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $62.03 is 3.8% below it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 11 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 19% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give IPGP?
The calibrated range for IPGP over 63 trading days is $50.99 to $78.92. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that IPGP's own options imply (66% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $46.67 to $89.34. In 38% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
IPG Photonics Corporation is a leading global developer and manufacturer of high-performance fiber, diode, and hybrid fiber-solid state lasers, along with fiber amplifiers. It was established in 1990 and is headquartered in Oxford, Massachusetts.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $64.36 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $61.72, so the fair value moved +4.3%. In the model's own words, the companies it compares IPG Photonics with now trade on higher multiples: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $58.62 to $87.36. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium, which reflects input completeness, comparable count and agreement, and the spread of outcomes. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
IPG Photonics scores 34 out of 100 on the model's overall quality score, against comparable companies. Its balance sheet scores 90, with net debt to EBITDA at -3.58x against a peer median of 0.66x. Stability scores 9, with EBITDA margin downside volatility over five years at 6.2 pts against a peer median of 1.3 pts. The model compares the company with Axcelis Technologies, ACM Research, Penguin Solutions, Diodes, Vishay Intertechnology, Kulicke and Soffa, Power Integrations and Cohu.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does IPGP report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
IPG Photonics's next earnings report is scheduled for 11 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 11.1% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. IPGP's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 19.0% over one month.
On 5 Nov 2026 IPGP moved 11.5% in one session, against the 3.8% a day that options had priced: 3.0 times the implied size.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across IPGP's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.9%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in IPGP
How does IPGP score on business quality?
IPG Photonics's overall quality score is 34 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 18 | 0.3%ROIC | 9.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 30 | 0.75xFCF / net income | 1.26x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 47 | 2.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 19.0% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 36 | 0.7%Net buybacks / market value | 1.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 90 | -3.58xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.66x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 9 | 6.2 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.3 pts |
How does IPGP compare with similar companies?
The companies in semiconductors closest to IPG Photonics in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACLS Axcelis Technologies, Inc. | $90.00 | $92.10 | +2.3% | Fairly valued |
| ACMR ACM Research, Inc. | $39.31 | $59.55 | +51.5% | Undervalued |
| PENG Penguin Solutions, Inc. | $37.22 | $61.32 | +64.8% | Gap wider than 60% |
| DIOD Diodes Incorporated | $68.36 | $104.39 | +52.7% | Undervalued |
| VSH Vishay Intertechnology, Inc. | $22.02 | $35.89 | +63.0% | Gap wider than 60% |
| KLIC Kulicke and Soffa Industries, Inc. | $59.83 | $101.19 | +69.1% | Gap wider than 60% |
| POWI Power Integrations, Inc. | $38.84 | $44.41 | +14.3% | Fairly valued |
| COHU Cohu, Inc. | $34.90 | $48.30 | +38.4% | Undervalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for IPGP, the peer-implied price, is $52.28 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
IPG Photonics at a glance
Established in 1990 and headquartered in Oxford, Massachusetts, IPG Photonics Corporation is a leading global developer and manufacturer of high-performance fiber, diode, and hybrid fiber-solid state lasers, along with fiber amplifiers.
- Market value
- $3.1B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +11.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 7
- Beta to the US market
- 1.90
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. IPGP was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices IPG Photonics on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for IPGP was $61.72. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $64.36, a change of +4.3%. The companies the model compares it with now trade on higher multiples: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about IPG Photonics's valuation
Is IPG Photonics stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, IPGP reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $64.36 a share against a last close of $62.03, a gap of +3.8%.
What is IPGP's fair value?
$64.36 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $46.67 to $89.34.
What price range does the model give IPGP?
$50.99 to $78.92 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does IPG Photonics report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 11 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has IPGP moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was +38.8% around the report of 12 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for IPGP is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on IPGP
The model holds no idea open on IPGP today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on IPGP with their outcomes. A free account is enough.