NASDAQ: PENG · Semiconductors
Penguin Solutions (PENG) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 10 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Penguin Solutions (PENG) at $96.18 a share. The stock last closed at $78.20, which puts the model's fair value 23.0% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 13 Oct 2026. Penguin Solutions, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 10 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $74.32 to $96.18 (+29.4%). The multiple the model anchors on moved, lifting the fair value: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $78.20 is 23.0% below it: Undervalued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 5 Jan 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 24% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 17 Oct 2026.
What price range does the model give PENG?
The calibrated range for PENG over 63 trading days is $61.46 to $110.41. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that PENG's own options imply (84% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,266 past valuations, refreshed 10 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $68.85 to $131.63. In 71% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 10 Oct 2026
Penguin Solutions, Inc. is a global technology company focused on designing and delivering advanced enterprise solutions. Its business operations are segmented into three primary divisions: Advanced Computing, Integrated Memory, and Optimized LED.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $96.18 a share on 10 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 3 Oct 2026 gave $74.32, so the fair value moved +29.4%; the model states the multiple the model anchors on moved, lifting the fair value: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $61.46 to $110.41, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, calibrated weekly against realised prices, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is Medium.
The model's overall quality score is 73 out of 100, its composite of the six quality factors, a score against comparable companies. Profitability scored 100 with an ROIC of 18.1%, against a peer median of 1.6%. Earnings quality scored 0, with FCF / net income at -0.93x against a peer median of 2.07x. Growth quality scored 94, with revenue growth, trailing, at 26.5% against a peer median of 10.8%. Capital discipline scored 92 with net buybacks / market value at 2.2% against a peer median of 0.7%. Stability scored 100 with EBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y, at 1.3 pts against a peer median of 6.1 pts. The model compares Penguin Solutions, Inc. with Axcelis Technologies, Inc., Diodes Incorporated, ACM Research, Inc., IPG Photonics Corporation, Cohu, Inc., Veeco Instruments Inc., and Vishay Intertechnology, Inc.
Written from the figures on this page for the 10 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does PENG report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Penguin Solutions's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 13 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 21.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 37 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. PENG's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 24.2% over one month.
Around its last 2 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across PENG's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 13.9%.
Earlier reports are left out: the options record before 27 Jun 2026 is not comparable.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in PENG
How does PENG score on business quality?
Penguin Solutions's overall quality score is 73 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 18.1%ROIC | 1.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 0 | -0.93xFCF / net income | 2.07x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 94 | 26.5%Revenue growth, trailing | 10.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 92 | 2.2%Net buybacks / market value | 0.7% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 51 | 0.98xNet debt / EBITDA | -1.18x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 100 | 1.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 6.1 pts |
How does PENG compare with similar companies?
The companies in semiconductors closest to Penguin Solutions in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACLS Axcelis Technologies, Inc. | $124.88 | $125.78 | +0.7% | Fairly valued |
| DIOD Diodes Incorporated | $90.72 | $121.80 | +34.3% | Undervalued |
| ACMR ACM Research, Inc. | $64.83 | $95.66 | +47.6% | Undervalued |
| IPGP IPG Photonics Corporation | $75.85 | $69.30 | -8.6% | Fairly valued |
| SYNA Synaptics Incorporated | $119.44 | $134.57 | +12.7% | Low evidence grade |
| COHU Cohu, Inc. | $62.79 | $63.86 | +1.7% | Fairly valued |
| VECO Veeco Instruments Inc. | $48.82 | $67.41 | +38.1% | Undervalued |
| VSH Vishay Intertechnology, Inc. | $31.76 | $44.78 | +41.0% | Undervalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for PENG, the peer-implied price, is $210.08 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Penguin Solutions at a glance
Penguin Solutions, Inc. is a global technology company focused on designing and delivering advanced enterprise solutions. Its business operations are segmented into three primary divisions: Advanced Computing, Integrated Memory, and Optimized LED.
- Market value
- $3.9B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +40.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- 3.34
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 13 Oct 2026, 53.0% of the 1,094 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. PENG was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Penguin Solutions on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 3 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for PENG was $74.32. As of 10 Oct 2026 it is $96.18, a change of +29.4%. The multiple the model anchors on moved, lifting the fair value: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Penguin Solutions's valuation
Is Penguin Solutions stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, PENG reads as Undervalued as of 10 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $96.18 a share against a last close of $78.20, a gap of +23.0%.
What is PENG's fair value?
$96.18 a share as of 10 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $68.85 to $131.63.
What price range does the model give PENG?
$61.46 to $110.41 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,266 past valuations, refreshed 10 Oct 2026.
When does Penguin Solutions report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has PENG moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 13.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was -22.6% around the report of 7 Oct 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for PENG is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on PENG
The model holds no idea open on PENG today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on PENG with their outcomes. A free account is enough.