NYSE: LPX · Paper, Lumber & Forest Products
Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) at $64.04 a share. The stock last closed at $73.79, which puts the model's fair value 13.2% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Louisiana-Pacific Corporation.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 held the fair value at $64.04, within 1% of the run of 24 Oct 2026.
What the model makes of itThe price of $73.79 is 13.2% above it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 4 Nov 2026. Options prices imply a move of about 13% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give LPX?
The calibrated range for LPX over 63 trading days is $64.38 to $87.26. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that LPX's own options imply (46% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $44.16 to $91.10. In 38% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX) makes and sells building materials. Through its various subsidiaries, it is a key manufacturer and distributor in the sector.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $64.04 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $64.44, so the fair value moved -0.6%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days runs from $64.38 to $87.26. It is built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, and it is calibrated weekly against realised prices from 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. Faircurve grades the evidence Medium, based on input completeness, the number and agreement of comparable companies, and the width of the range of outcomes. The grade does not say whether the fair value is right.
The model's overall quality score for LPX is 22 out of 100, a composite of six factors scored against comparable companies. Profitability is weakest at 0, with ROIC of 3.5% against a peer median of 10.8%. Growth quality scores 13, with trailing revenue growth of -7.9% against a peer median of 2.0%. Earnings quality scores 31, with FCF / net income of -0.35x against a peer median of 0.80x. The model compares LPX with UFP Industries, Inc. (UFPI), Boise Cascade Company (BCC) and Sylvamo Corp (SLVM).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does LPX report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Louisiana-Pacific's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
On 4 Nov 2026, LPX's 30 day implied volatility worked out to a move of about 13.3% over one month, in either direction. That is a size, not a direction.
On 4 Nov 2026 LPX moved 6.8% in one session, against the 2.9% a day that options had priced: 2.4 times the implied size, around an earnings report.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across LPX's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.4%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in LPX
How does LPX score on business quality?
Louisiana-Pacific's overall quality score is 22 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 0 | 3.5%ROIC | 10.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 31 | -0.35xFCF / net income | 0.80x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 13 | -7.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 2.0% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 31 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 1.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 67 | 0.65xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.70x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 33 | 8.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.8 pts |
How does LPX compare with similar companies?
The companies in paper, lumber & forest products closest to Louisiana-Pacific in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UFPI UFP Industries, Inc. | $81.16 | $95.67 | +17.9% | Undervalued |
| BCC Boise Cascade Company | $74.81 | $91.49 | +22.3% | Undervalued |
| IP International Paper Company | $35.12 | $33.14 | -5.6% | Low evidence grade |
| SLVM Sylvamo Corp | $31.77 | $38.73 | +21.9% | Undervalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for LPX, the peer-implied price, is $28.73 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All paper, lumber & forest products stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Louisiana-Pacific at a glance
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX), through its various subsidiaries, is a key manufacturer and distributor of building materials.
- Market value
- $5.1B
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Paper, Lumber & Forest Products
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.7B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -7.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 8
- Beta to the US market
- 0.79
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 3 Nov 2026, 52.1% of the 1,081 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. LPX was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Louisiana-Pacific on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for LPX was $64.44. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $64.04, a change of -0.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Louisiana-Pacific's valuation
Is Louisiana-Pacific stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, LPX reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $64.04 a share against a last close of $73.79, a gap of -13.2%.
What is LPX's fair value?
$64.04 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $44.16 to $91.10.
What price range does the model give LPX?
$64.38 to $87.26 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Louisiana-Pacific report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has LPX moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was -10.7% around the report of 19 Feb 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for LPX is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on LPX
The model holds no idea open on LPX today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on LPX with their outcomes. A free account is enough.