NYSE: MAN · Staffing & Employment Services
ManpowerGroup (MAN) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values ManpowerGroup (MAN) at $48.14 a share. The stock last closed at $46.27, which puts the model's fair value 4.0% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. ManpowerGroup Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $50.40 to $48.14 (-4.5%). The companies the model compares it with now trade on lower multiples: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $46.27 is 4.0% below it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 4 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 14% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give MAN?
The calibrated range for MAN over 63 trading days is $40.10 to $55.17. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that MAN's own options imply (48% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $29.06 to $72.81. In 53% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
ManpowerGroup Inc. (MAN), established in 1948 and headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, is a prominent global provider of human resources and workforce management solutions.
Faircurve's model gave the stock a fair value of $48.14 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $50.40, so the fair value moved -4.5%. In the model's own words, the companies it compares the stock with now trade on lower multiples: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $40.10 to $55.17. It is built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, and calibrated weekly against realised prices across 6,661 past valuations. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence Medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The business scores 33 out of 100 on the model's overall quality measure, a composite of six quality factors scored against comparable companies. Earnings quality is the lowest at 4, with free cash flow to net income of 0.06x against a peer median of 1.33x. Profitability scores 25, with ROIC of 5.8% against a peer median of 15.5%. Stability stands out on the high side at 78, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 0.5 points against a peer median of 1.2 points. The model compares the company with Insperity, Inc. (NSP), Upwork Inc. (UPWK), Korn Ferry (KFY) and Paychex, Inc. (PAYX).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does MAN report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
ManpowerGroup's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 13.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 42 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. MAN's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 13.9% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across MAN's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 11.8%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in MAN
How does MAN score on business quality?
ManpowerGroup's overall quality score is 33 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 25 | 5.8%ROIC | 15.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 4 | 0.06xFCF / net income | 1.33x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 49 | 0.6%Revenue growth, trailing | 3.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 50 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 2.8% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 24 | 2.73xNet debt / EBITDA | -0.16x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 78 | 0.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.2 pts |
How does MAN compare with similar companies?
The companies in staffing & employment services closest to ManpowerGroup in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSP Insperity, Inc. | $50.82 | $46.51 | -8.5% | Fairly valued |
| UPWK Upwork Inc. | $10.32 | $10.52 | +1.9% | Fairly valued |
| KFY Korn Ferry | $77.16 | $85.08 | +10.3% | Fairly valued |
| PAYX Paychex, Inc. | $119.50 | $105.17 | -12.0% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for MAN, the peer-implied price, is $50.43 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All staffing & employment services stocks ranked by gap to fair value
ManpowerGroup at a glance
ManpowerGroup Inc., established in 1948 and headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, is a prominent global provider of human resources and workforce management solutions.
- Market value
- $2.2B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Staffing & Employment Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $19.7B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +6.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- -0.27
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. MAN was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices ManpowerGroup on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for MAN was $50.40. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $48.14, a change of -4.5%. The companies the model compares it with now trade on lower multiples: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about ManpowerGroup's valuation
Is ManpowerGroup stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, MAN reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $48.14 a share against a last close of $46.27, a gap of +4.0%.
What is MAN's fair value?
$48.14 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $29.06 to $72.81.
What price range does the model give MAN?
$40.10 to $55.17 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does ManpowerGroup report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has MAN moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 11.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was +34.1% around the report of 16 Jul 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MAN is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on MAN
The model holds no idea open on MAN today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on MAN with their outcomes. A free account is enough.