NYSE: MPT ยท Healthcare Facility REITs
Medical Properties Trust (MPT) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Medical Properties Trust (MPT) at $6.17 a share. The stock last closed at $2.02, which puts the model's fair value 205.4% above the price. The fair value sits more than 60% away from the price. Faircurve gives no verdict on a gap wider than 60%.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Medical Properties Trust, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices and the next earnings date. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $4.52 to $6.17 (+36.5%). The model does not yet explain moves on this valuation method.
What the model makes of itThe price of $2.02 is 205.4% below it. The fair value sits more than 60% away from the price. Faircurve gives no verdict on a gap wider than 60%.
What's nextNext report on 18 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 25% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give MPT?
The calibrated range for MPT over 63 trading days is $1.56 to $2.78. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that MPT's own options imply (88% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own range is $5.76 to $6.56.
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When does MPT report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Medical Properties Trust's next earnings report is scheduled for 18 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 4 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 26.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 43 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. MPT's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 25.3% over one month.
On 29 Oct 2026 MPT moved 11.3% in one session, against the 4.0% a day that options had priced: 2.8 times the implied size, around an earnings report.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across MPT's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.7%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in MPT
How does MPT compare with similar companies?
The companies in healthcare facility reits closest to Medical Properties Trust in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LTC LTC Properties, Inc. | $45.80 | $42.91 | -6.3% | Fairly valued |
| UHT Universal Health Realty Income Trust | $38.10 | $35.30 | -7.3% | Fairly valued |
| SBRA Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc. | $20.35 | $16.85 | -17.2% | Overvalued |
| HR Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated | $19.18 | $17.47 | -8.9% | Overvalued |
| CTRE CareTrust REIT, Inc. | $36.71 | $33.52 | -8.7% | Fairly valued |
| AHR American Healthcare REIT, Inc. | $54.93 | $23.05 | -58.0% | Low evidence grade |
| DOC Healthpeak Properties, Inc. | $19.56 | $31.13 | +59.2% | Undervalued |
| OHI Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc. | $47.53 | $51.12 | +7.6% | Undervalued |
All healthcare facility reit stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Medical Properties Trust at a glance
Medical Properties Trust, Inc. functions as a self-managed real estate investment trust (REIT). The company specializes in the financing, acquisition, and construction of healthcare properties, all structured under net-lease agreements.
- Market value
- $1.3B
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Healthcare Facility REITs
- Beta to the US market
- 0.37
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model values Medical Properties Trust three ways and blends them; the range around the fair value comes from 2,000 simulations of the dividend model. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for MPT was $4.52. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $6.17, a change of +36.5%. The model does not yet explain moves on this valuation method. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Medical Properties Trust's valuation
Is Medical Properties Trust stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts MPT's fair value at $6.17 a share against a last close of $2.02, as of 31 Oct 2026. The fair value sits more than 60% away from the price. Faircurve gives no verdict on a gap wider than 60%.
What is MPT's fair value?
$6.17 a share as of 31 Oct 2026. The fair value blends three methods: a cash-flow multiple against comparable companies, a dividend model, and the value of the properties. The model's own range is $5.76 to $6.56.
What price range does the model give MPT?
$1.56 to $2.78 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Medical Properties Trust report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 18 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has MPT moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +23.7% around the report of 27 Feb 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MPT is high. For real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at the dividend record: at least three years of paid dividends with no cut. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on MPT
The model holds no idea open on MPT today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on MPT with their outcomes. A free account is enough.