NYSE: MTX · Specialty Chemicals
Minerals Technologies (MTX) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Minerals Technologies (MTX) at $74.02 a share. The stock last closed at $66.43, which puts the model's fair value 11.4% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Minerals Technologies Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Minerals Technologies Inc. develops, manufactures, and distributes specialized mineral, mineral-based, and synthetic mineral products, along with related systems and services.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $74.02 a share on 3 Oct 2026, which is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved +5.2% from $70.35 on 26 Sep 2026. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $61.76 to $89.74, built from the fair value, and held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is Medium.
The company's overall quality score is 41 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its profitability score is 25, earnings quality is 63, growth quality is 54, capital discipline is 44, balance sheet is 20, and stability is 38. The model compares it with Innospec Inc. (IOSP), H.B. Fuller Company (FUL), WD-40 Company (WDFC), Hawkins, Inc. (HWKN), Quaker Houghton (KWR), and Stepan Co (SCL). The stock moved around its last 8 earnings reports with a median size of 3.0%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give MTX?
The calibrated range for MTX over 63 trading days is $61.76 to $89.74. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $53.06 to $100.79. In 61% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does MTX score on business quality?
Minerals Technologies's overall quality score is 41 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 25 | -0.3%ROIC | 5.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 63 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 54 | -2.2%Revenue growth, trailing | -3.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 44 | 1.7%Net buybacks / market value | 1.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 20 | 8.11xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.62x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 38 | 3.2 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.9 pts |
How does MTX compare with similar companies?
The companies in specialty chemicals closest to Minerals Technologies in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CC The Chemours Company | $13.71 | $13.52 | -1.4% | Low evidence grade |
| IOSP Innospec Inc. | $97.41 | $91.28 | -6.3% | Fairly valued |
| NGVT Ingevity Corporation | $72.41 | $73.74 | +1.8% | Low evidence grade |
| FUL H.B. Fuller Company | $50.20 | $57.71 | +15.0% | Fairly valued |
| WDFC WD-40 Company | $203.02 | $189.63 | -6.6% | Fairly valued |
| HWKN Hawkins, Inc. | $131.41 | $121.50 | -7.5% | Fairly valued |
| KWR Quaker Houghton | $160.73 | $138.60 | -13.8% | Fairly valued |
| SCL Stepan Co | $63.00 | $60.07 | -4.7% | Fairly valued |
When does MTX report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Minerals Technologies's next earnings report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 9.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How MTX moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.0%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | +3.4% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | +7.9% |
| 29 Jan 2026 | -0.8% |
| 23 Oct 2025 | -1.3% |
| 24 Jul 2025 | +8.9% |
| 24 Apr 2025 | -8.8% |
| 6 Feb 2025 | -2.6% |
| 24 Oct 2024 | -0.9% |
Minerals Technologies at a glance
Minerals Technologies Inc. is dedicated to the development, manufacturing, and distribution of a wide array of specialized mineral, mineral-based, and synthetic mineral products, complemented by related systems and services.
- Market value
- $2.1B
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Specialty Chemicals
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +5.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- 0.56
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Minerals Technologies on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for MTX was $70.35. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $74.02, a change of +5.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Minerals Technologies's valuation
Is Minerals Technologies stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, MTX reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $74.02 a share against a last close of $66.43, a gap of +11.4%.
What is MTX's fair value?
$74.02 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $53.06 to $100.79.
What price range does the model give MTX?
$61.76 to $89.74 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Minerals Technologies report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has MTX moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was +8.9% around the report of 24 Jul 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MTX is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.