NYSE: ONTO ยท Semiconductors
Onto Innovation (ONTO) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 19 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Onto Innovation (ONTO) at $237.06 a share. The stock last closed at $263.43, which puts the model's fair value 10.0% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 18 Sep 2026. Onto Innovation Inc.
What price range does the model give ONTO?
The calibrated range for ONTO over 63 trading days is $225.14 to $354.36. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that ONTO's own options imply (64% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 2,982 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $186.76 to $294.61. In 34% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does ONTO score on business quality?
Onto Innovation's overall quality score is 50 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 18 | 5.5%ROIC | 8.4% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 76 | 1.90xFCF / net income | 1.16x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 64 | 1.8%Revenue growth, trailing | 5.3% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 86 | 2.7%Net buybacks / market value | 0.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 40 | 0.83xNet debt / EBITDA | -0.12x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 36 | 2.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.7 pts |
How does ONTO compare with similar companies?
The companies in semiconductors closest to Onto Innovation in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWKS Skyworks Solutions, Inc. | $88.76 | $111.96 | +26.1% | Undervalued |
| AMKR Amkor Technology, Inc. | $50.30 | $71.72 | +42.6% | Undervalued |
| LSCC Lattice Semiconductor Corporation | $110.96 | $91.76 | -17.3% | Overvalued |
| SITM SiTime Corporation | $614.27 | $532.10 | -13.4% | Fairly valued |
| QRVO Qorvo, Inc. | $117.18 | $167.48 | +42.9% | Undervalued |
| SMTC Semtech Corporation | $185.00 | $166.82 | -9.8% | Fairly valued |
| RMBS Rambus Inc. | $87.60 | $96.57 | +10.2% | Fairly valued |
| FORM FormFactor, Inc. | $118.38 | $121.01 | +2.2% | Fairly valued |
When does ONTO report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Onto Innovation's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 18 Sep 2026 imply a move of about 14.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 27 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. ONTO's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 18.6% over one month.
On 14 Sep 2026 ONTO moved 11.1% in one session, against the 4.3% a day that options had priced: 2.6 times the implied size.
How ONTO moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 11.3%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | +11.7% |
| 5 May 2026 | -1.8% |
| 19 Feb 2026 | -1.6% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | +2.5% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | +14.3% |
| 8 May 2025 | -28.2% |
| 6 Feb 2025 | -10.8% |
| 31 Oct 2024 | -15.1% |
Onto Innovation at a glance
Onto Innovation Inc. is a global leader in designing, manufacturing, and supporting cutting-edge process control solutions.
- Market value
- $13.1B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +43.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 8
- Beta to the US market
- 3.17
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Onto Innovation on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 12 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for ONTO was $228.06. As of 19 Sep 2026 it is $237.06, a change of +3.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Onto Innovation's valuation
Is Onto Innovation stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ONTO reads as Fairly valued as of 19 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $237.06 a share against a last close of $263.43, a gap of -10.0%.
What is ONTO's fair value?
$237.06 a share as of 19 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $186.76 to $294.61.
What price range does the model give ONTO?
$225.14 to $354.36 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 2,982 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026.
When does Onto Innovation report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ONTO moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 11.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was -28.2% around the report of 8 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
Model confidence for ONTO is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.