NYSE: ONTO · Semiconductors
Onto Innovation (ONTO) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Onto Innovation (ONTO) at $206.26 a share. The stock last closed at $155.99, which puts the model's fair value 32.2% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Onto Innovation Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $212.28 to $206.26 (-2.8%). The companies the model compares it with now trade on lower multiples: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $155.99 is 32.2% below it: Undervalued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextNo report date on file. Options prices imply a move of about 27% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give ONTO?
The calibrated range for ONTO over 63 trading days is $117.91 to $219.99. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that ONTO's own options imply (94% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $162.35 to $256.47. In 53% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) is a technology company in semiconductors. It is a global leader in designing, manufacturing, and supporting cutting-edge process control solutions.
Faircurve's model put the fair value of Onto Innovation at $206.26 a share on 31 Oct 2026. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $212.28, so the fair value moved -2.8%. In the model's words, the companies it compares the stock with now trade on lower multiples: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days runs from $117.91 to $219.99. It is built around the price implied by the stock's options, calibrated weekly against 6,661 past valuations. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence High, based on input completeness, comparable companies and the width of outcomes. The grade does not say whether the fair value is right.
Overall, the model scores the business 56 out of 100 on quality, against comparable companies. Capital discipline is the strongest factor, at 95, with net buybacks at 3.6% of market value against a peer median of 0.0%. Profitability is the weakest, at 27, with ROIC at 5.5% against a peer median of 8.4%. The model compares the company with Rambus Inc. (RMBS), Semtech Corporation (SMTC), Skyworks Solutions, Inc. (SWKS), Lattice Semiconductor Corporation (LSCC), SiTime Corporation (SITM), FormFactor, Inc. (FORM), Amkor Technology, Inc. (AMKR) and Silicon Laboratories Inc. (SLAB).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does ONTO report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 17.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. ONTO's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 27.2% over one month.
On 5 Nov 2026 ONTO moved 15.6% in one session, against the 5.2% a day that options had priced: 3.0 times the implied size, around an earnings report.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across ONTO's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 11.3%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in ONTO
How does ONTO score on business quality?
Onto Innovation's overall quality score is 56 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 27 | 5.5%ROIC | 8.4% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 79 | 1.90xFCF / net income | 0.87x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 67 | 1.8%Revenue growth, trailing | 6.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 95 | 3.6%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 50 | 0.88xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.80x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 36 | 2.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.7 pts |
How does ONTO compare with similar companies?
The companies in semiconductors closest to Onto Innovation in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMKR Amkor Technology, Inc. | $30.49 | $56.98 | +86.9% | Gap wider than 60% |
| RMBS Rambus Inc. | $69.68 | $89.20 | +28.0% | Undervalued |
| SMTC Semtech Corporation | $91.54 | $133.76 | +46.1% | Undervalued |
| SWKS Skyworks Solutions, Inc. | $81.21 | $87.86 | +8.2% | Fairly valued |
| SLAB Silicon Laboratories Inc. | $221.35 | $206.57 | -6.7% | Low evidence grade |
| LSCC Lattice Semiconductor Corporation | $98.03 | $71.09 | -27.5% | Overvalued |
| SITM SiTime Corporation | $355.00 | $382.60 | +7.8% | Fairly valued |
| FORM FormFactor, Inc. | $71.76 | $95.62 | +33.2% | Undervalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for ONTO, the peer-implied price, is $215.17 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Onto Innovation at a glance
Onto Innovation Inc. is a global leader in designing, manufacturing, and supporting cutting-edge process control solutions.
- Market value
- $9.9B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +43.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 8
- Beta to the US market
- 3.35
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 55.1% of the 1,060 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. ONTO was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Onto Innovation on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for ONTO was $212.28. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $206.26, a change of -2.8%. The companies the model compares it with now trade on lower multiples: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Onto Innovation's valuation
Is Onto Innovation stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ONTO reads as Undervalued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $206.26 a share against a last close of $155.99, a gap of +32.2%.
What is ONTO's fair value?
$206.26 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $162.35 to $256.47.
What price range does the model give ONTO?
$117.91 to $219.99 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
How much has ONTO moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 11.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was +17.6% around the report of 8 Aug 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ONTO is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on ONTO
The model holds no idea open on ONTO today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on ONTO with their outcomes. A free account is enough.