NASDAQ: SMTC · Semiconductors
Semtech (SMTC) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 27 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Semtech (SMTC) at $169.94 a share. The stock last closed at $194.88, which puts the model's fair value 12.8% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Semtech Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 27 Sep 2026
Semtech Corporation is a technology firm specializing in the creation, production, and global distribution of advanced analog and mixed-signal semiconductor components, complemented by sophisticated algorithms.
Faircurve's model on 27 Sep 2026 found a fair value of $169.94 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $166.82, so the fair value moved +1.9%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $160.14 to $274.67, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is Medium.
The overall quality score against comparable companies is 60 out of 100. For example, Profitability is 96 with a ROIC of 13.9%, and Balance sheet is 25 with Net debt / EBITDA of 2.71x. The model compares Semtech Corporation with SiTime Corporation, Lattice Semiconductor Corporation, Onto Innovation Inc., Skyworks Solutions, Inc., Amkor Technology, Inc., MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc., Entegris, Inc., and Rambus Inc. Moves around the last 8 earnings reports show a median size of 15.7%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 27 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give SMTC?
The calibrated range for SMTC over 63 trading days is $160.14 to $274.67. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that SMTC's own options imply (76% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $117.71 to $243.28. In 44% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does SMTC score on business quality?
Semtech's overall quality score is 60 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 96 | 13.9%ROIC | 6.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 20 | 1.18xFCF / net income | 1.73x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 77 | 15.5%Revenue growth, trailing | 15.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 95 | 1.3%Net buybacks / market value | 0.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 25 | 2.71xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.04x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 38.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 6.8 pts |
How does SMTC compare with similar companies?
The companies in semiconductors closest to Semtech in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SITM SiTime Corporation | $709.44 | $567.28 | -20.0% | Overvalued |
| LSCC Lattice Semiconductor Corporation | $134.00 | $101.38 | -24.3% | Overvalued |
| ONTO Onto Innovation Inc. | $327.77 | $261.23 | -20.3% | Overvalued |
| SWKS Skyworks Solutions, Inc. | $85.03 | $113.60 | +33.6% | Undervalued |
| AMKR Amkor Technology, Inc. | $56.02 | $76.34 | +36.3% | Undervalued |
| MTSI MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. | $321.60 | $278.62 | -13.4% | Fairly valued |
| ENTG Entegris, Inc. | $166.47 | $165.66 | -0.5% | Fairly valued |
| RMBS Rambus Inc. | $111.97 | $108.97 | -2.7% | Fairly valued |
When does SMTC report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Semtech's next earnings report is scheduled for 23 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 11.7% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. SMTC's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 22.0% over one month.
How SMTC moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 15.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 25 Aug 2026 | +16.5% |
| 26 May 2026 | +0.3% |
| 16 Mar 2026 | -6.6% |
| 24 Nov 2025 | +12.4% |
| 25 Aug 2025 | +14.9% |
| 27 May 2025 | +39.8% |
| 13 Mar 2025 | +17.0% |
| 25 Nov 2024 | +24.0% |
Semtech at a glance
Semtech Corporation is a technology firm specializing in the creation, production, and global distribution of advanced analog and mixed-signal semiconductor components, complemented by sophisticated algorithms.
- Market value
- $17.0B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +41.9%
- Analysts with estimates
- 10
- Beta to the US market
- 3.07
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Semtech on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for SMTC was $166.82. As of 27 Sep 2026 it is $169.94, a change of +1.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Semtech's valuation
Is Semtech stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, SMTC reads as Fairly valued as of 27 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $169.94 a share against a last close of $194.88, a gap of -12.8%.
What is SMTC's fair value?
$169.94 a share as of 27 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $117.71 to $243.28.
What price range does the model give SMTC?
$160.14 to $274.67 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Semtech report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 23 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has SMTC moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 15.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +39.8% around the report of 27 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for SMTC is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.