NYSE: OTIS · Industrial Machinery
Otis Worldwide (OTIS) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Otis Worldwide (OTIS) at $82.12 a share. The stock last closed at $64.05, which puts the model's fair value 28.2% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Otis Worldwide Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Otis Worldwide Corporation is a global leader specializing in the manufacturing, installation, and servicing of elevators and escalators, with significant operations in the United States, China, and numerous other international markets.
On 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $82.12 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $84.78, so the fair value moved -3.1%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $68.90 to $100.13, built from the fair value since there is no live options data for the stock, and it held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is High.
The business has an overall quality score of 75 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Dover Corporation, Xylem Inc., Ingersoll Rand Inc., ITT Inc., Nordson Corporation, IDEX Corporation, Carrier Global Corporation, and Rockwell Automation, Inc. The stock's median move around its last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 2.4%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give OTIS?
The calibrated range for OTIS over 63 trading days is $68.90 to $100.13. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 15 to 30% above price, the calibrated range has held the price 50% of the time over 63 trading days, and 47% ended below it; the typical move was +4.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $64.86 to $101.54. In 79% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does OTIS score on business quality?
Otis Worldwide's overall quality score is 75 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 70.4%ROIC | 11.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 68 | 1.13xFCF / net income | 1.07x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 55 | 1.2%Revenue growth, trailing | 5.0% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 100 | 4.2%Net buybacks / market value | 1.8% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 20 | 3.33xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.27x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 88 | 0.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.9 pts |
How does OTIS compare with similar companies?
The companies in industrial machinery closest to Otis Worldwide in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOV Dover Corporation | $189.69 | $197.47 | +4.1% | Fairly valued |
| XYL Xylem Inc. | $101.79 | $107.21 | +5.3% | Fairly valued |
| IR Ingersoll Rand Inc. | $76.07 | $77.16 | +1.4% | Fairly valued |
| ITT ITT Inc. | $206.17 | $177.82 | -13.8% | Fairly valued |
| NDSN Nordson Corporation | $333.54 | $304.09 | -8.8% | Fairly valued |
| IEX IDEX Corporation | $232.99 | $211.30 | -9.3% | Fairly valued |
| CARR Carrier Global Corporation | $55.12 | $57.54 | +4.4% | Fairly valued |
| ROK Rockwell Automation, Inc. | $454.35 | $401.06 | -11.7% | Fairly valued |
When does OTIS report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Otis Worldwide's next earnings report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 8.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How OTIS moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2026 | -1.6% |
| 22 Apr 2026 | +0.8% |
| 28 Jan 2026 | -3.7% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | +1.3% |
| 23 Jul 2025 | -11.7% |
| 23 Apr 2025 | -6.3% |
| 29 Jan 2025 | -0.5% |
| 30 Oct 2024 | -3.1% |
Otis Worldwide at a glance
Otis Worldwide Corporation is a global leader specializing in the manufacturing, installation, and servicing of elevators and escalators, with significant operations in the United States, China, and numerous other international markets.
- Market value
- $25.1B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Industrial Machinery
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $15.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +5.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 8
- Beta to the US market
- 0.15
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Otis Worldwide on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for OTIS was $84.78. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $82.12, a change of -3.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Otis Worldwide's valuation
Is Otis Worldwide stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, OTIS reads as Undervalued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $82.12 a share against a last close of $64.05, a gap of +28.2%.
What is OTIS's fair value?
$82.12 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $64.86 to $101.54.
What price range does the model give OTIS?
$68.90 to $100.13 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Otis Worldwide report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has OTIS moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was -11.7% around the report of 23 Jul 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for OTIS is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.