Ingersoll Rand Inc. (IR) — Fair Value Analysis

Base-case fair value (P50): $76.99 · Current price: $83.34 · Verdict: Fairly Valued

The Verdict on IR

Based on our Monte Carlo simulations, Ingersoll Rand (IR) is currently Fairly Valued. The current market price of $83.34 sits close to our median fair value (P50) of $76.99. This indicates that, on average across thousands of forward-looking scenarios, the market is pricing IR largely in line with its intrinsic value. The simulation suggests an -7.6% difference between the current price and the median fair value, reinforcing the "Fairly Valued" verdict for the Industrials sector player.

How IR stacks up against Industrials

Ingersoll Rand's intrinsic valuation, as derived from our Monte Carlo modeling, points to an average quality tier for the company within the Industrials sector. While the current price of $83.34 is proximate to its P50 fair value of $76.99, this "average" rating reflects IR's operational and financial health relative to its sector peers. An average quality tier implies that while IR exhibits solid performance, it doesn't consistently demonstrate the significant competitive advantages or robust financial resilience that would warrant a higher tier rating. The -7.6% variance underscores this balanced assessment.

What this means for investors

For investors considering Ingersoll Rand, the "Fairly Valued" verdict suggests that the stock at $83.34 doesn't present a compelling deep-value or overvalued arbitrage opportunity right now based on our $76.99 estimate. The -7.6% gap implies limited immediate valuation-driven alpha potential. While our simulations identify a median fair value of $76.99, a full understanding requires examining the entire probability distribution, including potential downside and bull case scenarios. Investors can sign up for FairCurve to see the full bear/bull distribution and track IR's fair value as new fundamentals are released.