NASDAQ: PLTR · Infrastructure Software
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Palantir Technologies (PLTR) at $151.61 a share. The stock last closed at $188.75, which puts the model's fair value 19.7% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Palantir Technologies Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Palantir Technologies Inc. engineers and deploys advanced software platforms primarily for the intelligence community, supporting counterterrorism investigations and operations across the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $151.61 a share on 26 Sep 2026. This fair value moved +6.8% from the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $142.01. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $164.16 to $240.93, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is Medium.
The overall quality score is 59 out of 100 against comparable companies, with a Profitability score of 78 and an Earnings quality score of 10. The model compares the company with Oracle Corporation (ORCL), Synopsys, Inc. (SNPS), Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), and Block, Inc. (XYZ). The moves around the last 8 earnings reports include +32.2% on 3 Aug 2026 and -5.7% on 4 May 2026.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give PLTR?
The calibrated range for PLTR over 63 trading days is $164.16 to $240.93. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that PLTR's own options imply (54% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $103.42 to $219.67. In 30% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does PLTR score on business quality?
Palantir Technologies's overall quality score is 59 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 78 | 32.2%ROIC | 15.2% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 10 | 1.11xFCF / net income | 1.66x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 92 | 56.2%Revenue growth, trailing | 14.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 45 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 2.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 100 | -0.59xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.27x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 9 | 18.2 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.0 pts |
How does PLTR compare with similar companies?
The companies in infrastructure software closest to Palantir Technologies in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL Oracle Corporation | $142.30 | $149.94 | +5.4% | Fairly valued |
| PANW Palo Alto Networks, Inc. | $403.24 | $385.67 | -4.4% | Low evidence grade |
| CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. | $270.04 | $229.29 | -15.1% | Data under review |
| FTNT Fortinet, Inc. | $180.95 | $177.52 | -1.9% | Low evidence grade |
| NET Cloudflare, Inc. | $348.96 | $304.44 | -12.8% | Data under review |
| SNPS Synopsys, Inc. | $489.90 | $492.15 | +0.5% | Fairly valued |
| MSFT Microsoft Corporation | $517.53 | $473.82 | -8.4% | Fairly valued |
| XYZ Block, Inc. | $74.33 | $64.27 | -13.5% | Fairly valued |
All infrastructure software stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does PLTR report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Palantir Technologies's next earnings report is scheduled for 2 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 6.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. PLTR's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 15.6% over one month.
How PLTR moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 12.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 3 Aug 2026 | +32.2% |
| 4 May 2026 | -5.7% |
| 2 Feb 2026 | +7.7% |
| 3 Nov 2025 | -4.9% |
| 4 Aug 2025 | +12.3% |
| 5 May 2025 | -12.4% |
| 3 Feb 2025 | +25.9% |
| 4 Nov 2024 | +22.0% |
Palantir Technologies at a glance
Palantir Technologies Inc. engineers and deploys advanced software platforms primarily for the intelligence community, supporting counterterrorism investigations and operations across the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
- Market value
- $435.5B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Infrastructure Software
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $11.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +83.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 19
- Beta to the US market
- 2.04
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Palantir Technologies on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for PLTR was $142.01. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $151.61, a change of +6.8%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Palantir Technologies's valuation
Is Palantir Technologies stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, PLTR reads as Overvalued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $151.61 a share against a last close of $188.75, a gap of -19.7%.
What is PLTR's fair value?
$151.61 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $103.42 to $219.67.
What price range does the model give PLTR?
$164.16 to $240.93 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Palantir Technologies report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 2 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has PLTR moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 12.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was +32.2% around the report of 3 Aug 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for PLTR is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.