NASDAQ: PANW · Infrastructure Software
Palo Alto Networks (PANW) fair value and price range
As of 30 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Palo Alto Networks (PANW) at $385.67 a share. The stock last closed at $403.24, which puts the model's fair value 4.4% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Palo Alto Networks, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 30 Sep 2026
Palo Alto Networks, Inc. is a global leader in providing advanced cybersecurity solutions. The company's core product line includes both hardware and software-based firewalls.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $385.67 a share on 30 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $372.40, a move of +3.6%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $354.10 to $506.10, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
The company's overall quality score is 73 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Oracle Corporation (ORCL), Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR), Synopsys, Inc. (SNPS), Block, Inc. (XYZ), and Twilio Inc. (TWLO). The stock moved a median of 6.7% around its last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 30 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give PANW?
The calibrated range for PANW over 63 trading days is $354.10 to $506.10. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that PANW's own options imply (50% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $234.57 to $621.58. In 49% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does PANW score on business quality?
Palo Alto Networks's overall quality score is 73 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 86 | 1.6%ROIC | -3.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 75 | 14.29xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 75 | 24.5%Revenue growth, trailing | 21.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 59 | 0.3%Net buybacks / market value | 0.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 57 | -0.03xNet debt / EBITDA | 4.97x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 50 | 5.1 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 5.4 pts |
How does PANW compare with similar companies?
The companies in infrastructure software closest to Palo Alto Networks in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. | $270.04 | $229.29 | -15.1% | Data under review |
| ORCL Oracle Corporation | $142.30 | $149.94 | +5.4% | Fairly valued |
| PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc. | $188.75 | $151.61 | -19.7% | Overvalued |
| FTNT Fortinet, Inc. | $180.95 | $177.52 | -1.9% | Low evidence grade |
| NET Cloudflare, Inc. | $348.96 | $304.44 | -12.8% | Data under review |
| SNPS Synopsys, Inc. | $489.90 | $492.15 | +0.5% | Fairly valued |
| XYZ Block, Inc. | $74.33 | $64.27 | -13.5% | Fairly valued |
| TWLO Twilio Inc. | $294.58 | $321.84 | +9.3% | Fairly valued |
All infrastructure software stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does PANW report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Palo Alto Networks's next earnings report is scheduled for 18 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 6.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. PANW's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 14.5% over one month.
How PANW moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 1 Sep 2026 | -14.0% |
| 2 Jun 2026 | -6.7% |
| 17 Feb 2026 | -8.7% |
| 19 Nov 2025 | -7.9% |
| 18 Aug 2025 | +2.5% |
| 20 May 2025 | -6.7% |
| 13 Feb 2025 | +1.7% |
| 20 Nov 2024 | +2.5% |
Palo Alto Networks at a glance
Palo Alto Networks, Inc. is a global leader in providing advanced cybersecurity solutions. The company's core product line includes both hardware and software-based firewalls.
- Market value
- $305.4B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Infrastructure Software
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $14.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +23.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 30
- Beta to the US market
- 1.29
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Palo Alto Networks on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for PANW was $372.40. As of 30 Sep 2026 it is $385.67, a change of +3.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Palo Alto Networks's valuation
Is Palo Alto Networks stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts PANW's fair value at $385.67 a share against a last close of $403.24, as of 30 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is PANW's fair value?
$385.67 a share as of 30 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $234.57 to $621.58.
What price range does the model give PANW?
$354.10 to $506.10 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Palo Alto Networks report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 18 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has PANW moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was -14.0% around the report of 1 Sep 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for PANW is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.