Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) — Fair Value Analysis

Base-case fair value (P50): $259.92 · Current price: $213.43 · Verdict: Undervalued

The Verdict on RSG

Based on our proprietary Monte Carlo simulations, Republic Services (RSG) appears Deeply Undervalued. With a current price of $199.68, our median fair value (P50) stands at $257.90, suggesting a significant +29.2% upside potential. Investors seeking exposure to the Industrials sector should note this substantial disconnect between RSG's market price and its probabilistic fair value estimate. The Monte Carlo framework accounts for thousands of future scenarios, consistently pointing to an attractive entry point at the current valuation.

How RSG stacks up against Industrials

Republic Services holds a "strong" quality tier, indicating robust operational and financial health when benchmarked against its peers within the Industrials sector. This strong fundamental profile underpins the confidence in its fair value, reinforcing why the current price of $199.68 presents such a compelling discount to the $257.90 median fair value. While the Industrials sector can exhibit cyclicality, RSG’s consistent performance contributes to its elevated quality tier, making the +29.2% gap to fair value even more notable.

What this means for investors

For investors, the Deeply Undervalued verdict and the +29.2% potential upside to the $257.90 median fair value highlight RSG as a compelling opportunity. Our Monte Carlo simulations capture a wide array of potential outcomes, from downside scenarios influenced by market headwinds to bull cases driven by operational excellence, all while anchoring to fundamental drivers. The current price of $199.68 offers a significant margin of safety. Sign up for FairCurve to see the full bear and bull distribution and track RSG's fair value as new fundamentals are released.