Waste Management, Inc. (WM) — Fair Value Analysis

Base-case fair value (P50): $239.86 · Current price: $230.40 · Verdict: Fairly Valued

The Verdict on WM

Based on our Monte Carlo simulations, Waste Management (WM) is currently Fairly Valued. While the stock trades at $230.40, our median fair value (P50) points to $239.86, representing an implied +4.1% upside. This valuation suggests that WM's market price largely reflects its intrinsic value, aligning with the probabilistic outcomes from thousands of forward-looking scenarios. The slight positive upside indicates a modest buffer, but not a significant mispricing from the current $230.40 level.

How WM stacks up against Industrials

Within the Industrials sector, WM exhibits an average quality tier in terms of its operational and financial health. This average quality profile, assessed against its sector peers, supports the Fairly Valued verdict. Companies with average fundamentals in a stable sector like Industrials often see their market prices converge closely with their median fair value, which in WM's case is $239.86. The Monte Carlo analysis incorporates these quality aspects into its range of outcomes, confirming that the current $230.40 is reasonable given WM's standing.

What this means for investors

For investors tracking WM, the Fairly Valued verdict suggests a balanced risk-reward profile at $230.40. While the Monte Carlo simulations indicate a median fair value of $239.86 and an +4.1% upside, this is not indicative of deep undervaluation. The average quality tier also implies that significant outperformance due to operational leverage beyond expectations may be limited. To understand the full range of potential outcomes, including specific bear-case and bull-case scenarios for WM, sign up for a free FairCurve account. You can then track WM's fair value as new fundamentals are released.