SL Green Realty Corp. (SLG) — Fair Value Analysis

Base-case fair value (P50): $19.98 · Current price: $45.85 · Verdict: Overvalued

The Verdict on SLG

Monte Carlo simulations indicate SL GREEN REALTY REIT CORP (SLG) is Deeply Overvalued. Trading at a current price of $45.85, SLG's median fair value (P50) is calculated at $19.98. This substantial disparity suggests the market is pricing SLG -56.4% above its intrinsic worth based on thousands of forward-looking scenarios. The current valuation significantly exceeds the robust statistical estimate, signaling considerable downside risk for investors.

How SLG stacks up against peers

SLG currently holds an unrated quality tier, meaning its operational and financial health relative to its sector peers has not been benchmarked. This absence of a sector-specific quality rating means investors lack a direct comparison point for SLG's fundamental strength against its industry counterparts. However, this unrated status does not alter the Monte Carlo assessment, which firmly pegs SLG’s median fair value at $19.98 versus its market price of $45.85, underscoring the -56.4% premium at which it trades.

What this means for investors

The Monte Carlo analysis for SL GREEN REALTY REIT CORP (SLG) highlights a stark discrepancy: a current market price of $45.85 versus a P50 fair value of just $19.98. This -56.4% valuation gap suggests that the market may be overlooking significant intrinsic value drivers or applying an overly optimistic multiple. Investors should consider the implications of this deep overvaluation, particularly in a downside scenario. To fully understand the range of potential outcomes for SLG, including the bear and bull case distributions, sign up for a free FairCurve account to see the full probabilistic spread and track SLG's fair value as new fundamentals are released.