Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) — Fair Value Analysis

Base-case fair value (P50): $23.65 · Current price: $39.39 · Verdict: Overvalued

The Verdict on VNO

Our Monte Carlo simulations indicate Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) is Deeply Overvalued. The current market price of $39.39 stands significantly above its median fair value (P50) of $23.65. This substantial discrepancy implies a potential -40.0% downside, suggesting considerable risk for investors at current levels. Our models, which simulate thousands of forward-looking scenarios, consistently place VNO's intrinsic value well below its present trading price, reinforcing the Deeply Overvalued verdict.

How VNO stacks up against peers

While VNO's operational and financial health against its sector remains 'unrated', the stark difference between its $39.39 and our $23.65 fair value highlights a significant individual valuation disconnect. Our analysis focuses on VNO's intrinsic value based on a comprehensive Monte Carlo simulation, rather than a direct peer comparison. The -40.0% gap underscores that, even without a specific quality tier rating, the stock's current price is not justified by its projected future cash flows and inherent volatility as modeled across thousands of potential market paths.

What this means for investors

For investors considering VNO, the Deeply Overvalued verdict, with $39.39 trading well above our $23.65 median fair value, suggests a cautious approach. The -40.0% gap signals material risk based on our Monte Carlo analysis, which explores a wide range of future market conditions and their impact on VNO's valuation. FairCurve's simulations provide a probability distribution of potential future values, offering a robust framework for assessing this risk. Sign up for FairCurve to see the full bear/bull distribution and track VNO's fair value as new fundamentals are released.