Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) — Fair Value Analysis
Base-case fair value (P50): $23.75 · Current price: $37.70 · Verdict: Overvalued
The Verdict on VNO
Our latest Monte Carlo simulation, a rigorous analysis spanning thousands of forward-looking scenarios, indicates VORNADO REALTY TRUST (VNO) is Deeply Overvalued. The model pinpoints a median fair value (P50) of $23.75, standing in sharp contrast to VNO's current trading price of $37.70. This significant disparity implies a substantial downside of -37.0% when measured against our calculated intrinsic value, signaling a concerning outlook for investors at current market levels. The robust nature of the simulation underpins this verdict, reflecting a comprehensive assessment of potential future performance.
How VNO stacks up against peers
VNO's current trading price of $37.70 places its valuation markedly above our Monte Carlo-derived median fair value of $23.75. While VNO's quality tier is currently unrated, the sheer magnitude of the -37.0% strongly suggests a considerable divergence from typical valuation metrics observed across the REIT sector. Such a pronounced gap indicates that the market may be pricing in exceptionally optimistic growth projections or overlooking fundamental risks, in stark contrast to the comprehensive and probabilistic outlook generated by our simulation. This overvaluation implies that, relative to what could be considered a reasonable peer benchmark, VNO is trading at a significant premium.
What this means for investors
The Monte Carlo analysis offers a strong cautionary signal for VNO investors. With the stock trading at $37.70 against a median fair value of $23.75, the projected -37.0% highlights significant downside risk from current levels. While our simulations also explore a bull case scenario, the overall probability distribution generated by FairCurve heavily skews towards lower values, consistent with our "Deeply Overvalued" verdict. Investors should carefully consider how this substantial overvaluation, derived from thousands of dynamic forward scenarios, might impact their portfolio strategy. To gain full access to the comprehensive bear/bull distribution and track VNO's fair value as new fundamental data is released, sign up for a free FairCurve account.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VNO overvalued or undervalued right now?
Based on our Monte Carlo simulations, VNO is deeply overvalued. Its current price of $37.70 is significantly higher than its median fair value (P50) of $23.75.
What is the bear case and bull case for VNO?
The full Monte Carlo distribution, including bear (P10) and bull (P90) target prices, along with the probability of upside, is available with a free FairCurve account. We do not disclose specific dollar values here.
How does FairCurve calculate VNO's fair value?
FairCurve calculates VNO's fair value using Monte Carlo simulation, running thousands of forward-looking scenarios to determine a probabilistic range of outcomes.
How can I track VNO's fair value as it changes?
You can add VNO to a free FairCurve watchlist to receive daily fair-value updates and instant re-valuations whenever new earnings or fundamental data are released.