NYSE: WAT · Diagnostics & Research
Waters (WAT) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Waters (WAT) at $329.03 a share. The stock last closed at $425.21, which puts the model's fair value 22.6% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Waters Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Waters Corporation is a global leader in specialized measurement, delivering analytical solutions across Asia, the Americas, and Europe, operating through two main divisions: Waters and TA.
On 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model valued Waters Corporation at $329.03 a share, which is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -3.3% since the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $340.32. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $276.05 to $401.19, built from the fair value since there is no live options data for the stock, and calibrated weekly against realised prices from 4,327 past valuations refreshed on 26 Sep 2026. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the evidence grade is High.
The business has an overall quality score of 44 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with IDEXX Laboratories, Inc., Illumina, Inc., IQVIA Holdings Inc., Agilent Technologies, Inc., Mettler-Toledo International Inc., Quest Diagnostics Incorporated, and Medpace Holdings, Inc. The stock moved +6.7% around its earnings report on 4 Aug 2026, +15.8% on 5 May 2026, -14.2% on 9 Feb 2026, +7.6% on 4 Nov 2025, -3.1% on 4 Aug 2025, -0.8% on 6 May 2025, -6.5% on 12 Feb 2025, and +19.9% on 1 Nov 2024.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give WAT?
The calibrated range for WAT over 63 trading days is $276.05 to $401.19. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is above this range. For names with fair value 15%+ below price, the calibrated range has held the price 40% of the time over 63 trading days, and 58% ended above it; the typical move was −0.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $270.96 to $392.69. In 9% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does WAT score on business quality?
Waters's overall quality score is 44 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 0 | 1.5%ROIC | 12.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 68 | 2.40xFCF / net income | 1.31x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 90 | 7.0%Revenue growth, trailing | 6.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 30 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 1.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 15 | 5.26xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.43x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 80 | 0.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.5 pts |
How does WAT compare with similar companies?
The companies in diagnostics & research closest to Waters in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IDXX IDEXX Laboratories, Inc. | $518.39 | $486.42 | -6.2% | Fairly valued |
| ILMN Illumina, Inc. | $273.04 | $208.21 | -23.7% | Overvalued |
| IQV IQVIA Holdings Inc. | $258.21 | $359.38 | +39.2% | Undervalued |
| A Agilent Technologies, Inc. | $167.78 | $161.23 | -3.9% | Fairly valued |
| MTD Mettler-Toledo International Inc. | $1,486.19 | $1,422.10 | -4.3% | Fairly valued |
| DGX Quest Diagnostics Incorporated | $233.33 | $280.88 | +20.4% | Undervalued |
| LH Labcorp Holdings Inc. | $308.49 | $303.65 | -1.6% | Low evidence grade |
| MEDP Medpace Holdings, Inc. | $599.47 | $680.99 | +13.6% | Fairly valued |
All diagnostics & research stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does WAT report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Waters's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 4.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How WAT moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.2%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2026 | +6.7% |
| 5 May 2026 | +15.8% |
| 9 Feb 2026 | -14.2% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | +7.6% |
| 4 Aug 2025 | -3.1% |
| 6 May 2025 | -0.8% |
| 12 Feb 2025 | -6.5% |
| 1 Nov 2024 | +19.9% |
Waters at a glance
Waters Corporation is a global leader in specialized measurement, delivering analytical solutions across Asia, the Americas, and Europe. The company operates through two main divisions: Waters and TA.
- Market value
- $42.6B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Diagnostics & Research
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $7.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +103.9%
- Analysts with estimates
- 13
- Beta to the US market
- 0.71
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Waters on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for WAT was $340.32. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $329.03, a change of -3.3%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Waters's valuation
Is Waters stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, WAT reads as Overvalued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $329.03 a share against a last close of $425.21, a gap of -22.6%.
What is WAT's fair value?
$329.03 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $270.96 to $392.69.
What price range does the model give WAT?
$276.05 to $401.19 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Waters report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has WAT moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was +19.9% around the report of 1 Nov 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for WAT is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.