The S&P 500 rose 2.35% on Monday, 9 November, as buyers returned to technology shares after a selloff that Wall Street brokerages called overdone, while Nvidia (NVDA) fell as its board opened an inquiry into its chief executive. The gain was the index's largest one-day gain since 8 April 2026 (2.55% that day), and every sector rose.

The buying sided with the brokerages, and the chipmakers led it. Citi disagreed, advising investors to sit out the global technology trade until sentiment improves. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rose 13.26%, its largest one-day gain since 6 May 2026 (18.61% that day). The Dow Jones gained 2.15%, its third 1,000-point swing in four sessions. The concern behind the selling, in Faircurve's reading, is whether AI shares were priced for more growth than they can deliver, and the day's prices treated that concern as overdone.

Nvidia stayed out of the rally. Its board opened an investigation into Jensen Huang's relationship with an alleged Chinese spy, which added pressure on the shares. Elsewhere, 86% of shares rose. High-beta shares outperformed low-beta shares by 5.15%, against a month in which low-beta shares had led by 15.41%. That is the pattern of a relief rally in the month's laggards.

The open concern is whether a gain this large marks the end of the selling. After earlier gains this large, the index was higher a month later in 60% of instances (70 of 116, vs. a 66% base rate), with a median move of +1.32%. That history describes a relief rally followed by a slightly softer month than usual, with Tuesday's inflation report as its next test.

The brokerages' case rests on what technology's price already assumes. Technology's trailing P/E sits in the bottom 15% of its days since June 2022. The sector's price needs 10% a year of earnings growth, against the 17% analysts expect from its typical company next year. For a multiple this low, mean reversion runs through the price recovering or the earnings falling short, and that gap favours the price recovering if the forecasts hold. Consumer staples stand at the other end, priced for 19% a year of earnings growth against the 7% analysts expect, and they rose less than any sector but energy. That contrast favours the brokerages, since technology's price already assumes slower growth than analysts expect while staples carry a haven premium the rally began to give back.

Lenders saw no trouble in the rebound. The high-yield spread narrowed on the day and on the week, as the chart shows. The most indebted companies underperformed the least indebted by 0.67%, so the buying favoured the balance sheets lenders already trust. Rate-sensitive companies underperformed the companies least sensitive to rates by 2.26%, the usual pattern when yields rise, after a month in which they had led by 27.00%. The pattern is a rally that bought growth and stayed selective on debt and on rates.

Short-dated Treasuries fell, and the odds of a December rate rise climbed. The two-year yield rose 5 bp to 4.56%, and the market-implied odds of a quarter-point hike on Wednesday 9 December rose to 86% from 78% on Friday. Richmond Fed President Barkin said the direction of policy is relatively clear but should be moved with care. Oil fell after President Trump said further strikes on Iran were highly unlikely while nuclear talks and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz progress. Brent crude fell 5.85%, and energy rose less than any other sector. That leaves Tuesday's inflation report to show whether the Fed's path firms further.

Europe traded through the US morning and joined the rally, while Asia's sessions, closed before New York opened, split. The DAX rose 2.97%. In Asia, Taiwan's TAIEX rose 4.94% and the Nikkei 225 climbed 2.33%, while the KOSPI fell 0.81%, taking its loss over the week to 14.34%. Asia's buying favoured Taiwan and Japan and left Korea behind.

Faircurve's model reads the day as a junk rally. The shares the model flags as value traps rose 4.05%, 1.42% more than the broad market, with every covered share counted equally. Over the past three months, the shares it flagged as value traps fell behind the broad market 63% of the time, by 3.2% on average over a month. Applied Materials (AMAT) reports on Thursday, which will show whether the chipmakers' rebound has results behind it.

• Nvidia (NVDA) fell 4.27%, taking its loss over the week to 11.58%. The model's fair value sits 23.9% above the price, evidence grade medium.

• Constellation Energy (CEG) rose 10.46% at the close and edged 0.28% lower in after-hours trading. Earnings of $5.06 a share beat the $3.9 estimate.

• Ferguson (FERG) rose 11.22% at the close and added 0.41% in after-hours trading. Earnings of $3.43 a share beat the $3.31 estimate.

• Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) fell 3.48% in the session before its results, then rose 4.56% in after-hours trading. The reported loss of $0.29 a share carried a one-off, and revenue came in close to the estimate.

• KKR (KKR) rose 1.67% at the close, and earnings of $1.78 a share beat the $1.58 estimate. The model's fair value sits 18.0% below the price, evidence grade low.

The October consumer price index arrives on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. in New York, with forecasts of 0.3% for the headline and 0.2% for the core, and it will show whether the December hike odds hold. Cisco (CSCO) reports on Wednesday, with analysts expecting earnings of $1.32 a share, a read on technology demand beyond the chipmakers. Applied Materials follows on Thursday, with analysts expecting earnings of $4.05 a share.

Mon 9 Nov, sorted best to worst on the day, with the model’s read.

All eleven sectors rose, led by industrials (+3.82%), while energy (+0.52%) trailed after a week's 7.90% fall as oil slid. The model's fair value sits 4.6% above technology's price at the median.

The session’s biggest moves among large companies the model values.

The winners were mostly chipmakers, from Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) to Advanced Micro Devices, while the losers paired Nvidia with Humana (HUM) and Philip Morris International (PM). The model's fair value sits 25.9% below Advanced Micro Devices' price, evidence grade medium.

What investors trade, read through the theme funds.

Growth led the themes, and the high-beta themes led with it. The growth themes outperformed the real-economy themes by 1.45%, the pattern of a day of adding risk. Uranium led all the themes, up 6.18%, while oil and gas producers edged 0.22% higher on the day oil fell. Semiconductors rose 5.05% yet remain down 17.53% this month, and the model sees semiconductor shares 6.7% below fair value at the median.

Faircurve’s credit gauge: spreads implied by bond-fund prices.

CCC widening flag: Faircurve's credit gauge flags a widening in the lowest-rated tier: an implied move of about 108 bp over the last 20 sessions. The CCC-to-high-yield gap is 975 bp, wider than on 99% of days over three years.

The high-yield spread is in the top 17% of weeks over the past three years (high), rising for four weeks.

Lenders were calm in high yield on Faircurve's credit gauge, which reads spreads from bond-fund prices, and still strained in the lowest-quality tier within high yield. The CCC spread over high yield stands at 975 bp, in the 99th percentile of three years, so CCC-rated borrowers still face the costliest refinancing, and the CCC widening flag stays on.

The odds now lean more firmly towards a December hike, up 8 points since Friday. Tuesday's inflation report is the release most able to move them, with speeches from Fed officials Waller and Logan around it. The bills' rising path agrees with a hike.