NASDAQ: AAL · Airlines, Airports & Air Services
American Airlines Group (AAL) fair value and price range
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values American Airlines Group (AAL) at $7.69 a share. The stock last closed at $12.94, which puts the model's fair value 40.6% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. American Airlines Group Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
American Airlines Group Inc. functions as a prominent network air carrier, delivering scheduled air transportation for both passengers and freight.
On 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $7.69 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This was a move of +15.8% from the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $6.64. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $11.36 to $16.25, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model graded the evidence behind this valuation as low.
The overall quality score was 55 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compared American Airlines Group Inc. with SkyWest, Inc., Southwest Airlines Co., and Delta Air Lines, Inc. Moves around the last 8 earnings reports, measured from the close before each report to the close after it, had a median size, ignoring direction, of 6.5%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give AAL?
The calibrated range for AAL over 63 trading days is $11.36 to $16.25. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that AAL's own options imply (50% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $0.00 to $26.98. In 38% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does AAL score on business quality?
American Airlines Group's overall quality score is 55 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 33 | 2.9%ROIC | 5.2% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 89 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 55 | 0.8%Revenue growth, trailing | 3.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 50 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.6% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 18 | 10.32xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.82x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 89 | 1.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.6 pts |
How does AAL compare with similar companies?
The companies in airlines, airports & air services closest to American Airlines Group in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALK Alaska Air Group, Inc. | $39.53 | $44.88 | +13.5% | Low evidence grade |
| SKYW SkyWest, Inc. | $96.43 | $130.35 | +35.2% | Undervalued |
| LUV Southwest Airlines Co. | $42.47 | $46.19 | +8.8% | Fairly valued |
| UAL United Airlines Holdings, Inc. | $112.51 | $141.92 | +26.1% | Low evidence grade |
| ALGT Allegiant Travel Company | $77.61 | $99.32 | +28.0% | Low evidence grade |
| JBLU JetBlue Airways Corporation | $4.15 | $1.25 | -69.9% | Gap wider than 60% |
| DAL Delta Air Lines, Inc. | $84.09 | $122.92 | +46.2% | Undervalued |
All airlines, airports & air services stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does AAL report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
American Airlines Group's next earnings report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 10.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 20 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. AAL's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 14.6% over one month.
How AAL moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 23 Jul 2026 | -2.1% |
| 23 Apr 2026 | +5.2% |
| 27 Jan 2026 | -7.8% |
| 23 Oct 2025 | +14.0% |
| 24 Jul 2025 | -9.3% |
| 24 Apr 2025 | -4.9% |
| 23 Jan 2025 | -9.1% |
| 24 Oct 2024 | +2.5% |
American Airlines Group at a glance
American Airlines Group Inc. functions as a prominent network air carrier, delivering scheduled air transportation for both passengers and freight.
- Market value
- $9.2B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Airlines, Airports & Air Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $65.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +15.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 13
- Beta to the US market
- 1.70
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices American Airlines Group on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for AAL was $6.64. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $7.69, a change of +15.8%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about American Airlines Group's valuation
Is American Airlines Group stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts AAL's fair value at $7.69 a share against a last close of $12.94, as of 26 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is AAL's fair value?
$7.69 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $0.00 to $26.98.
What price range does the model give AAL?
$11.36 to $16.25 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does American Airlines Group report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has AAL moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was +14.0% around the report of 23 Oct 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for AAL is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.