NASDAQ: SKYW · Airlines, Airports & Air Services
SkyWest (SKYW) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values SkyWest (SKYW) at $130.35 a share. The stock last closed at $96.43, which puts the model's fair value 35.2% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. SkyWest, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
SkyWest, Inc. functions as a regional airline operator within the United States, managing its activities through various subsidiaries. The company organises its business into two primary divisions: SkyWest Airlines and SkyWest Leasing.
Faircurve's model on 26 Sep 2026 gave a fair value of $130.35 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $125.67, so the fair value moved +3.7%. The model’s calibrated range over 63 trading days, built from the fair value, was $109.36 to $158.94; this type of range held the price 60% of the time. The evidence grade for this valuation was Medium.
The overall quality score was 73 out of 100, against comparable companies. The model compared SkyWest, Inc. with Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) and Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL). Moves around the last 8 earnings reports, from the close before each report to the close after it, included +8.3% on 23 Jul 2026 and -6.0% on 23 Apr 2026, with a median size of 4.7%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give SKYW?
The calibrated range for SKYW over 63 trading days is $109.36 to $158.94. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 30%+ above price, the calibrated range has held the price 29% of the time over 63 trading days, and 71% ended below it; the typical move was +5.7%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $91.29 to $178.70. In 71% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does SKYW score on business quality?
SkyWest's overall quality score is 73 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 85 | 9.2%ROIC | 4.2% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 83 | 0.77xFCF / net income | -1.16x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 65 | 15.0%Revenue growth, trailing | 3.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 50 | 5.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.3% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 65 | 2.26xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.63x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 60 | 2.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.8 pts |
How does SKYW compare with similar companies?
The companies in airlines, airports & air services closest to SkyWest in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALK Alaska Air Group, Inc. | $39.53 | $44.88 | +13.5% | Low evidence grade |
| ALGT Allegiant Travel Company | $77.61 | $99.32 | +28.0% | Low evidence grade |
| AAL American Airlines Group Inc. | $12.94 | $7.69 | -40.6% | Low evidence grade |
| JBLU JetBlue Airways Corporation | $4.15 | $1.25 | -69.9% | Gap wider than 60% |
| LUV Southwest Airlines Co. | $42.47 | $46.19 | +8.8% | Fairly valued |
| UAL United Airlines Holdings, Inc. | $112.51 | $141.92 | +26.1% | Low evidence grade |
| DAL Delta Air Lines, Inc. | $84.09 | $122.92 | +46.2% | Undervalued |
All airlines, airports & air services stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does SKYW report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
SkyWest's next earnings report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 5.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How SKYW moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 23 Jul 2026 | +8.3% |
| 23 Apr 2026 | -6.0% |
| 29 Jan 2026 | -1.0% |
| 30 Oct 2025 | +4.0% |
| 24 Jul 2025 | -1.0% |
| 24 Apr 2025 | +8.3% |
| 30 Jan 2025 | +4.4% |
| 31 Oct 2024 | +5.0% |
SkyWest at a glance
SkyWest, Inc. functions as a regional airline operator within the United States, managing its activities through various subsidiaries. The company organizes its business into two primary divisions: SkyWest Airlines and SkyWest Leasing.
- Market value
- $4.1B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Airlines, Airports & Air Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $4.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +7.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- 1.07
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices SkyWest on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for SKYW was $125.67. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $130.35, a change of +3.7%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about SkyWest's valuation
Is SkyWest stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, SKYW reads as Undervalued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $130.35 a share against a last close of $96.43, a gap of +35.2%.
What is SKYW's fair value?
$130.35 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $91.29 to $178.70.
What price range does the model give SKYW?
$109.36 to $158.94 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does SkyWest report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has SKYW moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +8.3% around the report of 23 Jul 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for SKYW is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.