NASDAQ: ALGT · Airlines, Airports & Air Services
Allegiant Travel (ALGT) fair value and price range
As of 29 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Allegiant Travel (ALGT) at $99.32 a share. The stock last closed at $77.61, which puts the model's fair value 28.0% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Allegiant Travel Company.
Faircurve Insights · 29 Sep 2026
Allegiant Travel Company, founded in 1997 and headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada, operates as a leisure travel provider primarily catering to residents in smaller, under-served cities across the United States.
Faircurve's model on 29 Sep 2026 gave a fair value of $99.32 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 26 Sep 2026, gave $95.30, and the fair value moved +4.2%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $83.33 to $121.10; this held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
The company's overall quality score is 53 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with SkyWest, Inc., Southwest Airlines Co., and Delta Air Lines, Inc. Moves around the last 8 earnings reports range from -14.2% to +17.2%, with a median size of 4.8%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 29 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give ALGT?
The calibrated range for ALGT over 63 trading days is $83.33 to $121.10. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 15 to 30% above price, the calibrated range has held the price 50% of the time over 63 trading days, and 47% ended below it; the typical move was +4.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $43.27 to $175.59. In 61% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does ALGT score on business quality?
Allegiant Travel's overall quality score is 53 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 38 | 2.5%ROIC | 4.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 90 | 4.49xFCF / net income | -1.16x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 80 | 3.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 5.3% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 50 | 0.1%Net buybacks / market value | 0.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 28 | 5.64xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.63x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 5.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.1 pts |
How does ALGT compare with similar companies?
The companies in airlines, airports & air services closest to Allegiant Travel in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JBLU JetBlue Airways Corporation | $4.15 | $1.25 | -69.9% | Gap wider than 60% |
| SKYW SkyWest, Inc. | $96.43 | $130.35 | +35.2% | Undervalued |
| ALK Alaska Air Group, Inc. | $39.53 | $44.88 | +13.5% | Low evidence grade |
| AAL American Airlines Group Inc. | $12.94 | $7.69 | -40.6% | Low evidence grade |
| LUV Southwest Airlines Co. | $42.47 | $46.19 | +8.8% | Fairly valued |
| UAL United Airlines Holdings, Inc. | $112.51 | $141.92 | +26.1% | Low evidence grade |
| DAL Delta Air Lines, Inc. | $84.09 | $122.92 | +46.2% | Undervalued |
All airlines, airports & air services stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does ALGT report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Allegiant Travel's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 8.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How ALGT moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.8%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2026 | +0.5% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | +0.7% |
| 4 Feb 2026 | +7.2% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | +17.2% |
| 4 Aug 2025 | +1.6% |
| 6 May 2025 | +2.4% |
| 4 Feb 2025 | -14.2% |
| 30 Oct 2024 | +7.1% |
Allegiant Travel at a glance
Allegiant Travel Company, founded in 1997 and headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada, operates as a leisure travel provider primarily catering to residents in smaller, under-served cities across the United States.
- Market value
- $2.1B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Airlines, Airports & Air Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $4.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +42.9%
- Analysts with estimates
- 8
- Beta to the US market
- 1.92
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Allegiant Travel on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for ALGT was $95.30. As of 29 Sep 2026 it is $99.32, a change of +4.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Allegiant Travel's valuation
Is Allegiant Travel stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts ALGT's fair value at $99.32 a share against a last close of $77.61, as of 29 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is ALGT's fair value?
$99.32 a share as of 29 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $43.27 to $175.59.
What price range does the model give ALGT?
$83.33 to $121.10 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Allegiant Travel report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ALGT moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was +17.2% around the report of 4 Nov 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ALGT is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.