NASDAQ: ACAD · Biotechnology
Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) at $23.69 a share. The stock last closed at $19.95, which puts the model's fair value 18.7% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc. operates as a biopharmaceutical company, primarily dedicated to discovering, developing, and commercializing small molecule therapeutics.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $23.69 a share on 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $27.37, so the fair value moved -13.4%. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $19.88 to $28.89, built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the model graded the evidence as Medium.
The company's overall quality score is 59 out of 100 against comparable companies, with a Profitability score of 77 and a Balance sheet score of 100. The model compares it with Arcus Biosciences, Inc., ADMA Biologics, Inc., Vericel Corporation, and Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports include +12.5% on 4 Aug 2026 and +50.3% on 7 May 2025, with a median size of 2.5% ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give ACAD?
The calibrated range for ACAD over 63 trading days is $19.88 to $28.89. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $17.17 to $31.88. In 64% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does ACAD score on business quality?
Acadia Pharmaceuticals's overall quality score is 59 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 77 | 8.7%ROIC | -41.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 22 | 0.46xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 71 | 11.9%Revenue growth, trailing | |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 75 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 100 | -2.68xNet debt / EBITDA | |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 16.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y |
How does ACAD compare with similar companies?
The companies in biotechnology closest to Acadia Pharmaceuticals in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCUS Arcus Biosciences, Inc. | $24.44 | $21.87 | -10.5% | Fairly valued |
| PTCT PTC Therapeutics, Inc. | $63.46 | $71.64 | +12.9% | Low evidence grade |
| HRMY Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. | $39.64 | $41.49 | +4.7% | Low evidence grade |
| ADMA ADMA Biologics, Inc. | $9.72 | $10.95 | +12.7% | Fairly valued |
| LGND Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated | $302.96 | $302.87 | 0.0% | Low evidence grade |
| VCEL Vericel Corporation | $40.15 | $38.17 | -4.9% | Fairly valued |
| SRPT Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. | $17.50 | $25.32 | +44.7% | Undervalued |
| FTRE Fortrea Holdings Inc. | $20.00 | $22.77 | +13.9% | Low evidence grade |
When does ACAD report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Acadia Pharmaceuticals's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 5.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How ACAD moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2026 | +12.5% |
| 6 May 2026 | +0.9% |
| 25 Feb 2026 | +0.2% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | -0.9% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | +3.2% |
| 7 May 2025 | +50.3% |
| 26 Feb 2025 | +1.7% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | +14.7% |
Acadia Pharmaceuticals at a glance
Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc. operates as a biopharmaceutical company, primarily dedicated to discovering, developing, and commercializing small molecule therapeutics.
- Market value
- $3.5B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Biotechnology
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.4B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +18.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 13
- Beta to the US market
- 0.66
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Acadia Pharmaceuticals on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the revenue analysts expect next year (forward EV/Sales), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for ACAD was $27.37. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $23.69, a change of -13.4%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Acadia Pharmaceuticals's valuation
Is Acadia Pharmaceuticals stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ACAD reads as Undervalued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $23.69 a share against a last close of $19.95, a gap of +18.7%.
What is ACAD's fair value?
$23.69 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $17.17 to $31.88.
What price range does the model give ACAD?
$19.88 to $28.89 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Acadia Pharmaceuticals report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ACAD moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was +50.3% around the report of 7 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ACAD is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.