NASDAQ: SRPT · Biotechnology
Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) at $22.32 a share. The stock last closed at $17.57, which puts the model's fair value 27.0% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $21.29 to $22.32 (+4.8%). The multiple the model anchors on moved, lifting the fair value: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $17.57 is 27.0% below it. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What's nextNo report date on file. Options prices imply a move of about 34% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give SRPT?
The calibrated range for SRPT over 63 trading days is $12.36 to $27.07. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that SRPT's own options imply (118% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $12.92 to $35.37. In 62% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company. It is dedicated to the discovery and advancement of genetic treatment modalities, including RNA-targeted therapeutics and gene therapies, specifically for rare diseases.
Faircurve's model put the fair value of Sarepta Therapeutics at $22.32 a share on 31 Oct 2026. It is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $21.29, so the fair value moved +4.8%. In the model's own words, the multiple it anchors on moved, lifting the fair value: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $14.43 to $26.60. It is built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, based on 6,661 past valuations. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The model's overall quality score is 49 out of 100, a composite of six factors scored against comparable companies. Profitability scores 65, with ROIC of -7.2% against a peer median of -23.1%. Stability scores 17, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 15.7 pts against a peer median of 24.2 pts. The model compares the company with Vir Biotechnology, Fortrea Holdings, Vericel, Arcus Biosciences and ADMA Biologics.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
The Global Pulse
Faircurve's note after each US session, in your inbox. No account needed.
When does SRPT report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 18.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 7 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. SRPT's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 34.2% over one month.
Around its last 6 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across SRPT's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.9%.
Earlier reports are left out: the options record before 25 Jul 2025 is not comparable.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in SRPT
How does SRPT score on business quality?
Sarepta Therapeutics's overall quality score is 49 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 65 | -7.2%ROIC | -23.1% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 33 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 33 | 15.6%Revenue growth, trailing | 23.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 75 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 70 | -32.55xNet debt / EBITDA | |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 17 | 15.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 24.2 pts |
How does SRPT compare with similar companies?
The companies in biotechnology closest to Sarepta Therapeutics in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIR Vir Biotechnology, Inc. | $11.02 | $12.12 | +10.0% | Fairly valued |
| FTRE Fortrea Holdings Inc. | $20.46 | $26.04 | +27.3% | Undervalued |
| VCEL Vericel Corporation | $51.78 | $46.61 | -10.0% | Fairly valued |
| XNCR Xencor, Inc. | $34.05 | $33.00 | -3.1% | Data under review |
| HRMY Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. | $32.47 | $38.98 | +20.0% | Low evidence grade |
| RCUS Arcus Biosciences, Inc. | $17.69 | $16.43 | -7.1% | Fairly valued |
| INVA Innoviva, Inc. | $19.24 | $22.92 | +19.1% | Low evidence grade |
| ADMA ADMA Biologics, Inc. | $13.21 | $13.32 | +0.8% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for SRPT, the peer-implied price, is $191.90 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Sarepta Therapeutics at a glance
Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company dedicated to the discovery and advancement of genetic treatment modalities, including RNA-targeted therapeutics and gene therapies, specifically for rare diseases.
- Market value
- $2.0B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Biotechnology
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -16.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 11
- Beta to the US market
- 1.98
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Sarepta Therapeutics on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the revenue analysts expect next year (forward EV/Sales), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for SRPT was $21.29. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $22.32, a change of +4.8%. The multiple the model anchors on moved, lifting the fair value: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Sarepta Therapeutics's valuation
Is Sarepta Therapeutics stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts SRPT's fair value at $22.32 a share against a last close of $17.57, as of 31 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is SRPT's fair value?
$22.32 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $12.92 to $35.37.
What price range does the model give SRPT?
$12.36 to $27.07 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
How much has SRPT moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was -32.5% around the report of 3 Nov 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for SRPT is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on SRPT
The model holds no idea open on SRPT today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on SRPT with their outcomes. A free account is enough.