NASDAQ: SRPT ยท Biotechnology
Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 22 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) at $26.46 a share. The stock last closed at $20.14, which puts the model's fair value 31.4% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 21 Sep 2026. Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc.
What price range does the model give SRPT?
The calibrated range for SRPT over 63 trading days is $16.33 to $29.93. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that SRPT's own options imply (86% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 2,982 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $18.04 to $36.86. In 73% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does SRPT score on business quality?
Sarepta Therapeutics's overall quality score is 55 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 80 | -7.2%ROIC | -65.7% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 50 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 37 | 15.6%Revenue growth, trailing | 11.3% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 69 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 70 | -32.55xNet debt / EBITDA | |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 15.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y |
How does SRPT compare with similar companies?
The companies in biotechnology closest to Sarepta Therapeutics in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADMA ADMA Biologics, Inc. | $9.51 | $9.15 | -3.8% | Low model confidence |
| VCEL Vericel Corporation | $39.55 | $40.19 | +1.6% | Low model confidence |
| FTRE Fortrea Holdings Inc. | $20.02 | $19.53 | -2.4% | Low model confidence |
| HRMY Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. | $42.10 | $47.62 | +13.1% | Fairly valued |
| XNCR Xencor, Inc. | $25.03 | $24.13 | -3.6% | Data under review |
| VIR Vir Biotechnology, Inc. | $10.88 | $10.07 | -7.4% | Low model confidence |
| INVA Innoviva, Inc. | $21.04 | $21.21 | +0.8% | Low model confidence |
| RCUS Arcus Biosciences, Inc. | $25.95 | $22.72 | -12.4% | Fairly valued |
When does SRPT report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Sarepta Therapeutics's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 21 Sep 2026 imply a move of about 9.4% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 10 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. SRPT's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 24.8% over one month.
How SRPT moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.9%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | +2.4% |
| 6 May 2026 | -4.5% |
| 25 Feb 2026 | -7.4% |
| 3 Nov 2025 | -32.5% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | +7.2% |
| 6 May 2025 | -66.1% |
| 26 Feb 2025 | -3.6% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | -3.7% |
Sarepta Therapeutics at a glance
Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company dedicated to the discovery and advancement of genetic treatment modalities, including RNA-targeted therapeutics and gene therapies, specifically for rare diseases.
- Market value
- $2.1B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Biotechnology
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -16.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 10
- Beta to the US market
- 2.08
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Sarepta Therapeutics on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the revenue analysts expect next year (forward EV/Sales), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for SRPT was $26.53. As of 22 Sep 2026 it is $26.46, a change of -0.3%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Sarepta Therapeutics's valuation
Is Sarepta Therapeutics stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, SRPT reads as Undervalued as of 22 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $26.46 a share against a last close of $20.14, a gap of +31.4%.
What is SRPT's fair value?
$26.46 a share as of 22 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $18.04 to $36.86.
What price range does the model give SRPT?
$16.33 to $29.93 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 2,982 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026.
When does Sarepta Therapeutics report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has SRPT moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was -66.1% around the report of 6 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
Model confidence for SRPT is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.