NASDAQ: HRMY · Biotechnology
Harmony Biosciences (HRMY) fair value and price range
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Harmony Biosciences (HRMY) at $41.49 a share. The stock last closed at $39.64, which puts the model's fair value 4.7% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. is a commercial-stage pharmaceutical firm that develops and markets therapies for individuals in the United States who suffer from rare neurological conditions.
Faircurve's model valued Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. at $41.49 a share on 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $47.62, so the fair value moved -12.9%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $34.81 to $50.59, built from the fair value since there is no live options data for the stock. This range held the price 60% of the time. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low.
The company's business quality against comparable companies is not shown. The model compares it with ADMA Biologics, Inc. (ADMA), Vericel Corporation (VCEL), Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. (SRPT), Arcus Biosciences, Inc. (RCUS), and Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD). The moves around the last 8 earnings reports range from +9.7% to -5.5%, with a median size, ignoring direction, of 5.5%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give HRMY?
The calibrated range for HRMY over 63 trading days is $34.81 to $50.59. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $30.25 to $56.92. In 50% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does HRMY compare with similar companies?
The companies in biotechnology closest to Harmony Biosciences in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADMA ADMA Biologics, Inc. | $9.72 | $10.95 | +12.7% | Fairly valued |
| VCEL Vericel Corporation | $40.15 | $38.17 | -4.9% | Fairly valued |
| SRPT Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. | $17.50 | $25.32 | +44.7% | Undervalued |
| FTRE Fortrea Holdings Inc. | $20.00 | $22.77 | +13.9% | Low evidence grade |
| RCUS Arcus Biosciences, Inc. | $24.44 | $21.87 | -10.5% | Fairly valued |
| VIR Vir Biotechnology, Inc. | $11.17 | $10.84 | -3.0% | Low evidence grade |
| XNCR Xencor, Inc. | $24.84 | $22.17 | -10.7% | Data under review |
| ACAD Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc. | $19.95 | $23.69 | +18.7% | Undervalued |
When does HRMY report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Harmony Biosciences's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 18.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How HRMY moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2026 | +7.4% |
| 7 May 2026 | -5.5% |
| 24 Feb 2026 | +4.9% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | +6.9% |
| 5 Aug 2025 | -2.4% |
| 6 May 2025 | +9.7% |
| 25 Feb 2025 | -2.1% |
| 29 Oct 2024 | -5.5% |
Harmony Biosciences at a glance
Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. is a commercial-stage pharmaceutical firm dedicated to developing and marketing therapies for individuals in the United States who suffer from rare neurological conditions.
- Market value
- $2.4B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Biotechnology
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.1B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +18.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- 0.54
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Harmony Biosciences on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for HRMY was $47.62. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $41.49, a change of -12.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Harmony Biosciences's valuation
Is Harmony Biosciences stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts HRMY's fair value at $41.49 a share against a last close of $39.64, as of 26 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is HRMY's fair value?
$41.49 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $30.25 to $56.92.
What price range does the model give HRMY?
$34.81 to $50.59 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Harmony Biosciences report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has HRMY moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was +9.7% around the report of 6 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for HRMY is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.