NASDAQ: ADBE · Application Software
Adobe (ADBE) fair value and price range
As of 28 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Adobe (ADBE) at $266.08 a share. The stock last closed at $237.69, which puts the model's fair value 11.9% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Adobe Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 28 Sep 2026
Adobe Inc. is a global software provider, delivering a diverse range of solutions. Its operations are structured into Digital Media, Digital Experience, and Publishing and Advertising divisions.
On 28 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $266.08 a share, which is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -6.5% from the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $284.54. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $215.27 to $282.63, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
The company has an overall quality score of 76 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its profitability score is 100, with ROIC at 51.4% compared to a peer median of 10.1%. Faircurve's model compares it with Datadog, Inc., Automatic Data Processing, Inc., ServiceNow, Inc., and Strategy Inc. The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports show a median size of 7.0%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 28 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give ADBE?
The calibrated range for ADBE over 63 trading days is $215.27 to $282.63. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that ADBE's own options imply (38% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $203.03 to $343.72. In 65% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does ADBE score on business quality?
Adobe's overall quality score is 76 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 51.4%ROIC | 10.1% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 52 | 1.50xFCF / net income | 1.93x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 52 | 10.5%Revenue growth, trailing | 14.0% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 94 | 12.9%Net buybacks / market value | 3.7% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 74 | 0.23xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.40x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 88 | 1.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.6 pts |
How does ADBE compare with similar companies?
The companies in application software closest to Adobe in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DDOG Datadog, Inc. | $277.22 | $232.21 | -16.2% | Overvalued |
| CDNS Cadence Design Systems, Inc. | $351.35 | $340.24 | -3.2% | Low evidence grade |
| APP AppLovin Corporation | $268.22 | $357.73 | +33.4% | Low evidence grade |
| ADP Automatic Data Processing, Inc. | $257.68 | $256.37 | -0.5% | Fairly valued |
| INTU Intuit Inc. | $281.08 | $372.11 | +32.4% | Low evidence grade |
| NOW ServiceNow, Inc. | $134.38 | $119.92 | -10.8% | Fairly valued |
| UBER Uber Technologies, Inc. | $68.11 | $68.21 | +0.1% | Low evidence grade |
| MSTR Strategy Inc | $160.01 | $141.45 | -11.6% | Fairly valued |
When does ADBE report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Adobe's next earnings report is scheduled for 9 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 5.4% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. ADBE's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 11.1% over one month.
How ADBE moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.0%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 10 Sep 2026 | -1.0% |
| 11 Jun 2026 | -12.6% |
| 12 Mar 2026 | -8.9% |
| 10 Dec 2025 | +1.8% |
| 11 Sep 2025 | -0.2% |
| 12 Jun 2025 | -5.1% |
| 12 Mar 2025 | -12.9% |
| 11 Dec 2024 | -13.2% |
Adobe at a glance
Adobe Inc. stands as a prominent global software provider, delivering a diverse range of solutions. Its operations are structured into three primary business divisions: Digital Media, Digital Experience, and Publishing and Advertising.
- Market value
- $93.6B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Application Software
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $28.7B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +12.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 22
- Beta to the US market
- 0.37
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Adobe on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for ADBE was $284.54. As of 28 Sep 2026 it is $266.08, a change of -6.5%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Adobe's valuation
Is Adobe stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts ADBE's fair value at $266.08 a share against a last close of $237.69, as of 28 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is ADBE's fair value?
$266.08 a share as of 28 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $203.03 to $343.72.
What price range does the model give ADBE?
$215.27 to $282.63 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Adobe report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 9 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ADBE moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was -13.2% around the report of 11 Dec 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ADBE is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.