NYSE: AGX · Engineering & Construction
Argan (AGX) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Argan (AGX) at $371.22 a share. The stock last closed at $383.83, which puts the model's fair value 3.3% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Argan, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Argan, Inc., operating through its various subsidiaries, offers a comprehensive suite of services to the power generation and renewable energy sectors.
On 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $371.22 a share, which is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved +8.1% since the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $343.50. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $309.71 to $450.04; ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the model graded the evidence as Medium.
The overall quality score for Argan, Inc. is 78 out of 100, a score against comparable companies. These comparable companies are Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA), MYR Group Inc. (MYRG), Everus Construction Group, Inc. (ECG), Primoris Services Corporation (PRIM), Fluor Corporation (FLR), Dycom Industries, Inc. (DY), and Tetra Tech, Inc. (TTEK). The stock's median move around its last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 8.7%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give AGX?
The calibrated range for AGX over 63 trading days is $309.71 to $450.04. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $267.49 to $512.38. In 47% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does AGX score on business quality?
Argan's overall quality score is 78 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 106.6%ROIC | 8.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 91 | 3.04xFCF / net income | 1.71x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 51 | 8.1%Revenue growth, trailing | 21.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 64 | 0.2%Net buybacks / market value | 0.5% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 100 | -1.67xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.41x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 29 | 1.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.4 pts |
How does AGX compare with similar companies?
The companies in engineering & construction closest to Argan in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GVA Granite Construction Incorporated | $119.92 | $141.37 | +17.9% | Undervalued |
| MYRG MYR Group Inc. | $304.77 | $353.14 | +15.9% | Undervalued |
| ECG Everus Construction Group, Inc. | $123.35 | $127.26 | +3.2% | Fairly valued |
| KBR KBR, Inc. | $34.24 | $36.64 | +7.0% | Low evidence grade |
| PRIM Primoris Services Corporation | $79.08 | $81.27 | +2.8% | Fairly valued |
| FLR Fluor Corporation | $49.90 | $58.99 | +18.2% | Undervalued |
| DY Dycom Industries, Inc. | $273.75 | $343.94 | +25.6% | Undervalued |
| TTEK Tetra Tech, Inc. | $33.12 | $34.36 | +3.7% | Fairly valued |
All engineering & construction stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does AGX report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Argan's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 8.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How AGX moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 8.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 2 Sep 2026 | +1.7% |
| 4 Jun 2026 | +1.2% |
| 26 Mar 2026 | +29.5% |
| 4 Dec 2025 | -10.6% |
| 4 Sep 2025 | -6.8% |
| 4 Jun 2025 | +45.2% |
| 27 Mar 2025 | +15.6% |
| 5 Dec 2024 | -1.2% |
Argan at a glance
Argan, Inc., operating through its various subsidiaries, offers a comprehensive suite of services to the power generation and renewable energy sectors.
- Market value
- $5.4B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Engineering & Construction
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.6B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +48.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 4
- Beta to the US market
- 1.78
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Argan on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for AGX was $343.50. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $371.22, a change of +8.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Argan's valuation
Is Argan stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, AGX reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $371.22 a share against a last close of $383.83, a gap of -3.3%.
What is AGX's fair value?
$371.22 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $267.49 to $512.38.
What price range does the model give AGX?
$309.71 to $450.04 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Argan report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has AGX moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 8.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +45.2% around the report of 4 Jun 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for AGX is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.