NYSE: ECG · Engineering & Construction
Everus Construction Group (ECG) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Everus Construction Group (ECG) at $105.07 a share. The stock last closed at $72.44, which puts the model's fair value 45.0% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Everus Construction Group, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $96.75 to $105.07 (+8.6%). The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $72.44 is 45.0% below it: Undervalued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 23 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 19% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give ECG?
The calibrated range for ECG over 63 trading days is $59.28 to $92.66. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that ECG's own options imply (67% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $82.80 to $131.81. In 53% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Everus Construction Group, Inc. (ECG) specialises in developing utility infrastructure. Its services include building electrical transmission lines and pipelines, and internal electrical wiring and cabling installations.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $105.07 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. That is up 8.6% from $96.75 on the previous run, on 24 Oct 2026. The model gives the reason as: "The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move." The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $59.28 to $92.66. It is built around the price from the volatility implied by the stock's options, calibrated weekly against 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence High; the grade does not say whether the fair value is right.
Faircurve's model gives an overall quality score of 71 out of 100 against comparable companies. Growth quality scores 100, with trailing revenue growth of 31.5% against a peer median of 16.9%. Stability scores 91, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 0.4 points against a peer median of 1.5 points. The comparables are Granite Construction, Argan, MYR Group, Fluor, Dycom, Primoris, Exponent and KBR.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does ECG report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Everus Construction Group's next earnings report is scheduled for 23 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 18.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 42 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. ECG's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 19.5% over one month.
On 5 Nov 2026 ECG moved 9.1% in one session, against the 3.7% a day that options had priced: 2.5 times the implied size.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across ECG's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 16.0%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in ECG
How does ECG score on business quality?
Everus Construction Group's overall quality score is 71 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 87 | 25.6%ROIC | 12.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 24 | 0.98xFCF / net income | 1.51x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 100 | 31.5%Revenue growth, trailing | 16.9% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 41 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.5% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 68 | 0.48xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.81x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 91 | 0.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.5 pts |
How does ECG compare with similar companies?
The companies in engineering & construction closest to Everus Construction Group in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GVA Granite Construction Incorporated | $121.00 | $143.02 | +18.2% | Undervalued |
| KBR KBR, Inc. | $38.04 | $42.86 | +12.7% | Low evidence grade |
| AGX Argan, Inc. | $261.21 | $322.99 | +23.7% | Undervalued |
| MYRG MYR Group Inc. | $246.59 | $272.08 | +10.3% | Fairly valued |
| FLR Fluor Corporation | $44.98 | $54.10 | +20.3% | Undervalued |
| DY Dycom Industries, Inc. | $192.79 | $264.75 | +37.3% | Undervalued |
| PRIM Primoris Services Corporation | $59.56 | $74.38 | +24.9% | Undervalued |
| EXPO Exponent, Inc. | $85.83 | $67.20 | -21.7% | Overvalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for ECG, the peer-implied price, is $108.28 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All engineering & construction stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Everus Construction Group at a glance
Everus Construction Group, Inc. specializes in developing utility infrastructure. Their comprehensive service portfolio includes building electrical transmission lines and pipelines, alongside internal electrical wiring, cabling installations, and various.
- Market value
- $5.2B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Engineering & Construction
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $5.1B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +24.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 2
- Beta to the US market
- 2.77
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. ECG was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Everus Construction Group on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for ECG was $96.75. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $105.07, a change of +8.6%. The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Everus Construction Group's valuation
Is Everus Construction Group stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ECG reads as Undervalued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $105.07 a share against a last close of $72.44, a gap of +45.0%.
What is ECG's fair value?
$105.07 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $82.80 to $131.81.
What price range does the model give ECG?
$59.28 to $92.66 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Everus Construction Group report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 23 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ECG moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 16.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was +22.6% around the report of 24 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ECG is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on ECG
The model holds no idea open on ECG today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on ECG with their outcomes. A free account is enough.