NASDAQ: ALGN · Medical Devices
Align Technology (ALGN) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 1 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Align Technology (ALGN) at $178.60 a share. The stock last closed at $143.74, which puts the model's fair value 24.3% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Align Technology, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 1 Oct 2026
Align Technology, Inc. is a medical technology enterprise. It develops, produces, and markets Invisalign transparent dental aligners and iTero digital intraoral scanners, along with related services.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $178.60 a share on 1 Oct 2026. This is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 26 Sep 2026, gave $180.39, so the fair value moved -1.0%. The model’s calibrated range over 63 trading days is $125.69 to $181.74. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade for this valuation is High.
The overall quality score for Align Technology, Inc. is 75 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Bio-Rad Laboratories, Inc., Globus Medical, Inc., Bruker Corporation, Insulet Corp., Glaukos Corporation, Penumbra, Inc., Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc., and Haemonetics Corporation. The stock’s median move around its last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 2.2%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 1 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give ALGN?
The calibrated range for ALGN over 63 trading days is $125.69 to $181.74. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that ALGN's own options imply (52% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $152.68 to $207.14. In 87% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does ALGN score on business quality?
Align Technology's overall quality score is 75 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 86 | 12.3%ROIC | 4.1% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 85 | 1.83xFCF / net income | 1.16x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 40 | 0.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 5.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 79 | 0.9%Net buybacks / market value | 0.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 90 | -1.25xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.63x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 71 | 1.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.8 pts |
How does ALGN compare with similar companies?
The companies in medical devices closest to Align Technology in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BIO Bio-Rad Laboratories, Inc. | $369.14 | $330.73 | -10.4% | Fairly valued |
| GMED Globus Medical, Inc. | $75.60 | $74.08 | -2.0% | Fairly valued |
| BRKR Bruker Corporation | $63.24 | $68.13 | +7.7% | Fairly valued |
| PODD Insulet Corp. | $131.69 | $142.34 | +8.1% | Fairly valued |
| GKOS Glaukos Corporation | $163.75 | $147.85 | -9.7% | Fairly valued |
| PEN Penumbra, Inc. | $317.55 | $285.08 | -10.2% | Fairly valued |
| ZBH Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. | $88.29 | $109.35 | +23.9% | Undervalued |
| HAE Haemonetics Corporation | $104.68 | $106.81 | +2.0% | Fairly valued |
When does ALGN report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Align Technology's next earnings report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 5.7% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. ALGN's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 15.0% over one month.
How ALGN moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.2%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 29 Jul 2026 | -1.2% |
| 29 Apr 2026 | -0.7% |
| 4 Feb 2026 | +11.8% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | +4.0% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | -37.3% |
| 30 Apr 2025 | -0.6% |
| 5 Feb 2025 | +1.7% |
| 23 Oct 2024 | +2.7% |
Align Technology at a glance
Align Technology, Inc. is a medical technology enterprise that develops, produces, and markets its leading products: Invisalign transparent dental aligners and iTero digital intraoral scanners, along with related services.
- Market value
- $10.5B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Medical Devices
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $4.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +3.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 10
- Beta to the US market
- 1.21
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Align Technology on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for ALGN was $180.39. As of 1 Oct 2026 it is $178.60, a change of -1.0%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Align Technology's valuation
Is Align Technology stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ALGN reads as Undervalued as of 1 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $178.60 a share against a last close of $143.74, a gap of +24.3%.
What is ALGN's fair value?
$178.60 a share as of 1 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $152.68 to $207.14.
What price range does the model give ALGN?
$125.69 to $181.74 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Align Technology report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ALGN moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was -37.3% around the report of 30 Jul 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ALGN is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.