NASDAQ: PODD · Medical Devices
Insulet (PODD) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Insulet (PODD) at $142.34 a share. The stock last closed at $131.69, which puts the model's fair value 8.1% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Insulet Corp.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Insulet Corporation develops, manufactures, and sells insulin delivery systems for people with insulin-dependent diabetes in the United States and internationally.
Faircurve's model on 26 Sep 2026 gave a fair value of $142.34 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This was +2.3% from the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $139.10. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days was $119.42 to $173.56, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade for this valuation was Medium.
The company's overall quality score against comparable companies was 71 out of 100. Its profitability score was 88, with ROIC 21.3% against a peer median of 8.0%. Earnings quality scored 50, with FCF / net income 0.79x against a peer median of 1.24x. The model compares Insulet with Glaukos Corporation, Bruker Corporation, Globus Medical, Inc., Bio-Rad Laboratories, Inc., Align Technology, Inc., Penumbra, Inc., Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc., and Haemonetics Corporation. Around its last 8 earnings reports, the median move was 7.5%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give PODD?
The calibrated range for PODD over 63 trading days is $119.42 to $173.56. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $86.72 to $225.93. In 53% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does PODD score on business quality?
Insulet's overall quality score is 71 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 88 | 21.3%ROIC | 8.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 50 | 0.79xFCF / net income | 1.24x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 82 | 30.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 7.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 69 | 3.5%Net buybacks / market value | 0.6% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 67 | 0.65xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.52x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 49 | 3.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.6 pts |
How does PODD compare with similar companies?
The companies in medical devices closest to Insulet in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GKOS Glaukos Corporation | $163.75 | $147.85 | -9.7% | Fairly valued |
| BRKR Bruker Corporation | $63.24 | $68.13 | +7.7% | Fairly valued |
| GMED Globus Medical, Inc. | $75.60 | $74.08 | -2.0% | Fairly valued |
| BIO Bio-Rad Laboratories, Inc. | $369.14 | $330.73 | -10.4% | Fairly valued |
| ALGN Align Technology, Inc. | $143.74 | $178.60 | +24.3% | Undervalued |
| PEN Penumbra, Inc. | $317.55 | $285.08 | -10.2% | Fairly valued |
| ZBH Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. | $88.29 | $109.35 | +23.9% | Undervalued |
| HAE Haemonetics Corporation | $104.68 | $106.81 | +2.0% | Fairly valued |
When does PODD report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Insulet's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 7.6% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How PODD moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | -16.5% |
| 6 May 2026 | -4.3% |
| 18 Feb 2026 | +1.1% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | +1.7% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | +10.7% |
| 8 May 2025 | +17.5% |
| 20 Feb 2025 | -0.3% |
| 7 Nov 2024 | +12.0% |
Insulet at a glance
Insulet Corporation develops, manufactures, and sells insulin delivery systems for people with insulin-dependent diabetes in the United States and internationally.
- Market value
- $9.4B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Medical Devices
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $3.6B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +21.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 14
- Beta to the US market
- 0.21
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Insulet on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for PODD was $139.10. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $142.34, a change of +2.3%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Insulet's valuation
Is Insulet stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, PODD reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $142.34 a share against a last close of $131.69, a gap of +8.1%.
What is PODD's fair value?
$142.34 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $86.72 to $225.93.
What price range does the model give PODD?
$119.42 to $173.56 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Insulet report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has PODD moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was +17.5% around the report of 8 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for PODD is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.