NYSE: PEN · Medical Devices
Penumbra (PEN) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Penumbra (PEN) at $291.62 a share. The stock last closed at $320.02, which puts the model's fair value 8.9% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Penumbra, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $295.67 to $291.62 (-1.4%). The multiple the model anchors on moved, lowering the fair value: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $320.02 is 8.9% above it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 24 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 21% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give PEN?
The calibrated range for PEN over 63 trading days is $258.39 to $416.21. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that PEN's own options imply (72% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $182.70 to $455.35. In 43% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Penumbra, Inc. (PEN) is a healthcare company in medical devices. Together with its subsidiaries, it designs, develops, manufactures and markets medical devices in the United States and internationally.
Faircurve's model gives a fair value of $291.62 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations run on 31 Oct 2026. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $295.67, so the fair value moved -1.4%. The model says the multiple it anchors on moved, lowering the fair value: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $255.30 to $422.41, built from the volatility the stock's own options imply. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Penumbra scores 64 out of 100 on quality against comparable companies, the model's composite of six factors. The balance sheet scores 93, with net debt to EBITDA of -0.20x against a peer median of 2.34x. Earnings quality scores 80, with FCF to net income of 1.28x against a peer median of 1.40x. Stability scores 39, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 3.3 pts against a peer median of 1.8 pts. The model compares the company with Align Technology, Globus Medical, Insulet, Bio-Rad Laboratories, Zimmer Biomet, Bruker and Haemonetics.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
The Global Pulse
Faircurve's note after each US session, in your inbox. No account needed.
When does PEN report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Penumbra's next earnings report is scheduled for 24 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 4 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 2.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 15 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. PEN's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 20.8% over one month.
How PEN moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.9%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 29 Oct 2026 | +0.2% |
| 30 Jul 2026 | +0.3% |
| 6 May 2026 | +0.2% |
| 25 Feb 2026 | +0.7% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | +12.6% |
| 29 Jul 2025 | +10.4% |
| 18 Feb 2025 | +13.1% |
| 30 Oct 2024 | +9.2% |
How does PEN score on business quality?
Penumbra's overall quality score is 64 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 53 | 9.3%ROIC | 8.2% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 80 | 1.28xFCF / net income | 1.40x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 66 | 17.5%Revenue growth, trailing | 14.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 55 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.7% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 93 | -0.20xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.34x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 39 | 3.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.8 pts |
How does PEN compare with similar companies?
The companies in medical devices closest to Penumbra in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GKOS Glaukos Corporation | $233.04 | $220.17 | -5.5% | Data under review |
| ALGN Align Technology, Inc. | $151.58 | $188.05 | +24.1% | Undervalued |
| GMED Globus Medical, Inc. | $79.58 | $91.57 | +15.1% | Undervalued |
| PODD Insulet Corp. | $154.86 | $178.47 | +15.2% | Undervalued |
| BIO Bio-Rad Laboratories, Inc. | $374.91 | $350.46 | -6.5% | Fairly valued |
| ZBH Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. | $97.06 | $105.50 | +8.7% | Fairly valued |
| BRKR Bruker Corporation | $56.50 | $63.61 | +12.6% | Fairly valued |
| HAE Haemonetics Corporation | $120.28 | $117.17 | -2.6% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for PEN, the peer-implied price, is $96.20 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Penumbra at a glance
Penumbra, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and markets medical devices in the United States and internationally.
- Market value
- $12.6B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Medical Devices
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +13.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- -0.04
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 3 Nov 2026, 52.1% of the 1,081 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. PEN was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Penumbra on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for PEN was $295.67. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $291.62, a change of -1.4%. The multiple the model anchors on moved, lowering the fair value: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Penumbra's valuation
Is Penumbra stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, PEN reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $291.62 a share against a last close of $320.02, a gap of -8.9%.
What is PEN's fair value?
$291.62 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $182.70 to $455.35.
What price range does the model give PEN?
$258.39 to $416.21 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Penumbra report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 24 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has PEN moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was +13.1% around the report of 18 Feb 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for PEN is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on PEN
The model holds no idea open on PEN today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on PEN with their outcomes. A free account is enough.