NYSE: ALV · Auto Parts
Autoliv (ALV) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Autoliv (ALV) at $108.43 a share. The stock last closed at $124.03, which puts the model's fair value 12.6% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Autoliv, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $105.61 to $108.43 (+2.7%). There are fewer shares than before, so each share's claim on the value changed: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $124.03 is 12.6% above it: Fairly valued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 29 Jan 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 10% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give ALV?
The calibrated range for ALV over 63 trading days is $112.39 to $139.99. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that ALV's own options imply (33% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $81.03 to $140.05. In 40% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Autoliv, Inc. (ALV) is in the Consumer Cyclical sector, Auto Parts. Operating through its global subsidiaries, it specializes in the development, production, and supply of passive safety equipment for the automotive sector.
On 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model put the fair value at $108.43 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $105.61, so the fair value moved +2.7%. The model gives the reason in its own words: "There are fewer shares than before, so each share's claim on the value changed: most of the move." The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $116.42 to $138.07. It is built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, and calibrated weekly against realised prices. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence High. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Autoliv's overall quality score is 56 out of 100, a composite of six factors scored against comparable companies. Profitability stands out at 91, with ROIC at 16.5% against a peer median of 9.6%. Earnings quality scores 17, with FCF / net income at 1.17x against a peer median of 2.04x. Capital discipline scores 36, with net buybacks at 5.9% of market value against a peer median of 5.6%. The model compares Autoliv with Aptiv PLC, BorgWarner Inc., Lear Corporation, LKQ Corporation, Genuine Parts Company, Dorman Products, Inc. and Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does ALV report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Autoliv's next earnings report is scheduled for 29 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 5.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. ALV's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 9.6% over one month.
On 4 Nov 2026 ALV moved 5.3% in one session, against the 1.8% a day that options had priced: 3.0 times the implied size.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across ALV's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.9%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in ALV
How does ALV score on business quality?
Autoliv's overall quality score is 56 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 91 | 16.5%ROIC | 9.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 17 | 1.17xFCF / net income | 2.04x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 56 | 4.1%Revenue growth, trailing | -0.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 36 | 5.9%Net buybacks / market value | 5.6% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 61 | 1.44xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.46x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 43 | 1.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.9 pts |
How does ALV compare with similar companies?
The companies in auto parts closest to Autoliv in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| APTV Aptiv PLC | $40.85 | $36.37 | -11.0% | Fairly valued |
| BWA BorgWarner Inc. | $47.53 | $50.06 | +5.3% | Fairly valued |
| LEA Lear Corporation | $114.10 | $183.77 | +61.1% | Gap wider than 60% |
| LKQ LKQ Corporation | $20.54 | $24.97 | +21.6% | Undervalued |
| GPC Genuine Parts Company | $124.44 | $109.98 | -11.6% | Fairly valued |
| GNTX Gentex Corporation | $20.21 | $18.59 | -8.0% | Data under review |
| DORM Dorman Products, Inc. | $139.48 | $118.86 | -14.8% | Fairly valued |
| ATMU Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc. | $46.16 | $51.84 | +12.3% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for ALV, the peer-implied price, is $83.27 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Autoliv at a glance
Autoliv, Inc., operating through its global subsidiaries, specializes in the development, production, and supply of passive safety equipment for the automotive sector.
- Market value
- $8.5B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Auto Parts
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $11.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +2.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 10
- Beta to the US market
- 0.83
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.1% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. ALV was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Autoliv on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for ALV was $105.61. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $108.43, a change of +2.7%. There are fewer shares than before, so each share's claim on the value changed: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Autoliv's valuation
Is Autoliv stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ALV reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $108.43 a share against a last close of $124.03, a gap of -12.6%.
What is ALV's fair value?
$108.43 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $81.03 to $140.05.
What price range does the model give ALV?
$112.39 to $139.99 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Autoliv report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 29 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ALV moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was +9.0% around the report of 17 Apr 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ALV is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on ALV
The model holds no idea open on ALV today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on ALV with their outcomes. A free account is enough.