NASDAQ: DORM · Auto Parts
Dorman Products (DORM) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Dorman Products (DORM) at $110.31 a share. The stock last closed at $123.06, which puts the model's fair value 10.4% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Dorman Products, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Dorman Products, Inc. (DORM) is a global supplier in the automotive aftermarket, providing replacement parts and fasteners for passenger vehicles, light trucks, and heavy-duty commercial trucks.
On 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $110.31 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $109.92, so the fair value moved +0.4%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $92.03 to $133.73, built from the fair value since there is no live options data for the stock. This range held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the model's evidence grade for the valuation is High.
The company's overall quality score is 51 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its profitability score is 80, with an ROIC of 14.3% compared to a peer median of 8.6%. Earnings quality scores 5, with FCF / net income at 0.98x against a peer median of 1.47x. The model compares Dorman Products, Inc. with Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc. (ATMU), Dana Incorporated (DAN), Gentex Corporation (GNTX), Visteon Corporation (VC), LKQ Corporation (LKQ), Lear Corporation (LEA), PHINIA Inc. (PHIN), and Autoliv, Inc. (ALV). The stock has moved by a median of 9.1% around its last 8 earnings reports.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give DORM?
The calibrated range for DORM over 63 trading days is $92.03 to $133.73. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $81.66 to $146.48. In 38% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does DORM score on business quality?
Dorman Products's overall quality score is 51 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 80 | 14.3%ROIC | 8.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 5 | 0.98xFCF / net income | 1.47x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 40 | 6.0%Revenue growth, trailing | 5.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 63 | 3.3%Net buybacks / market value | 3.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 86 | 1.09xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.61x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 33 | 1.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.8 pts |
How does DORM compare with similar companies?
The companies in auto parts closest to Dorman Products in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATMU Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc. | $45.70 | $48.27 | +5.6% | Fairly valued |
| DAN Dana Incorporated | $27.88 | $30.10 | +8.0% | Fairly valued |
| GNTX Gentex Corporation | $22.08 | $13.77 | -37.6% | Overvalued |
| VC Visteon Corporation | $88.77 | $110.77 | +24.8% | Undervalued |
| LKQ LKQ Corporation | $22.80 | $20.42 | -10.4% | Fairly valued |
| LEA Lear Corporation | $120.85 | $188.31 | +55.8% | Undervalued |
| PHIN PHINIA Inc. | $59.78 | $82.53 | +38.1% | Undervalued |
| ALV Autoliv, Inc. | $111.85 | $129.01 | +15.3% | Undervalued |
When does DORM report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Dorman Products's next earnings report is scheduled for 26 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 12.1% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How DORM moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 9.1%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 3 Aug 2026 | +11.0% |
| 4 May 2026 | +5.9% |
| 25 Feb 2026 | -7.8% |
| 27 Oct 2025 | -12.2% |
| 4 Aug 2025 | +11.8% |
| 5 May 2025 | +2.8% |
| 26 Feb 2025 | +1.9% |
| 31 Oct 2024 | +10.4% |
Dorman Products at a glance
Dorman Products, Inc. (DORM) is a global supplier within the automotive aftermarket, providing an extensive range of replacement parts and fasteners for passenger vehicles, light trucks, and heavy-duty commercial trucks.
- Market value
- $3.7B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Auto Parts
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +3.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 4
- Beta to the US market
- 0.51
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Dorman Products on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for DORM was $109.92. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $110.31, a change of +0.4%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Dorman Products's valuation
Is Dorman Products stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, DORM reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $110.31 a share against a last close of $123.06, a gap of -10.4%.
What is DORM's fair value?
$110.31 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $81.66 to $146.48.
What price range does the model give DORM?
$92.03 to $133.73 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Dorman Products report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 26 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has DORM moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 9.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was -12.2% around the report of 27 Oct 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for DORM is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.