NYSE: AM · Oil & Gas Midstream
Antero Midstream (AM) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Antero Midstream (AM) at $22.50 a share. The stock last closed at $20.94, which puts the model's fair value 7.4% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Antero Midstream Corporation.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $21.68 to $22.50 (+3.8%). The model's quality adjustment to the peer multiple moved, lifting the fair value: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $20.94 is 7.4% below it: Fairly valued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 10 Feb 2027. On the model's Quality at a Discount list since 4 Nov 2026 (a strategy with a proving record). The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give AM?
The calibrated range for AM over 63 trading days is $18.23 to $26.88. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $17.60 to $28.01. In 57% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) primarily owns, operates, and expands vital midstream energy infrastructure. It works through two divisions: Gathering and Processing, and Water Handling.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $22.50 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $21.68, so the fair value moved +3.8%. The model says its quality adjustment to the peer multiple moved, lifting the fair value, and that this was most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $18.23 to $26.88, built from the fair value because there is no live options data for the stock. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is High, based on input completeness, the number of comparable companies and how closely they agree, and the spread of outcomes. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Against comparable companies, the model's overall quality score is 69 out of 100. Profitability scores 80, with ROIC at 15.1% against a peer median of 8.6%. Earnings quality scores 84, with FCF / net income at 1.86x against a peer median of 0.93x. Stability scores 30, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility at 3.1 pts against a peer median of 2.5 pts. The model compares the company with DT Midstream, Viper Energy, Dorian LPG, ONEOK, Targa Resources, Kinder Morgan and The Williams Companies.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does AM report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Antero Midstream's next earnings report is scheduled for 10 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across AM's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.7%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in AM
How does AM score on business quality?
Antero Midstream's overall quality score is 69 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 80 | 15.1%ROIC | 8.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 84 | 1.86xFCF / net income | 0.93x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 54 | 7.0%Revenue growth, trailing | 11.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 65 | 1.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 78 | 2.36xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.28x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 30 | 3.1 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.5 pts |
How does AM compare with similar companies?
The companies in oil & gas midstream closest to Antero Midstream in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DTM DT Midstream, Inc. | $122.58 | $113.90 | -7.1% | Fairly valued |
| VNOM Viper Energy, Inc. | $44.17 | $36.62 | -17.1% | Overvalued |
| KNTK Kinetik Holdings Inc. | $54.24 | $44.68 | -17.6% | Low evidence grade |
| LPG Dorian LPG Ltd. | $51.96 | $58.16 | +11.9% | Fairly valued |
| OKE ONEOK, Inc. | $91.94 | $100.54 | +9.4% | Fairly valued |
| TRGP Targa Resources Corp. | $298.56 | $256.04 | -14.2% | Fairly valued |
| KMI Kinder Morgan, Inc. | $32.87 | $29.27 | -11.0% | Fairly valued |
| WMB The Williams Companies, Inc. | $72.47 | $59.55 | -17.8% | Overvalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for AM, the peer-implied price, is $23.97 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Antero Midstream at a glance
Antero Midstream Corporation primarily owns, operates, and expands vital midstream energy infrastructure. Its operations are divided into two key divisions: Gathering and Processing, and Water Handling.
- Market value
- $10.1B
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Midstream
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.4B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +6.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- -0.09
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 3 Nov 2026, 52.1% of the 1,081 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. AM was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Antero Midstream on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for AM was $21.68. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $22.50, a change of +3.8%. The model's quality adjustment to the peer multiple moved, lifting the fair value: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Antero Midstream's valuation
Is Antero Midstream stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, AM reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $22.50 a share against a last close of $20.94, a gap of +7.4%.
What is AM's fair value?
$22.50 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $17.60 to $28.01.
What price range does the model give AM?
$18.23 to $26.88 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Antero Midstream report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 10 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has AM moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +8.1% around the report of 30 Jul 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for AM is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on AM
The model has an idea open on AM under Quality at a Discount since 4 Nov 2026, a strategy with a proving record. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on AM with their outcomes. A free account is enough.