NASDAQ: VNOM · Oil & Gas Midstream
Viper Energy (VNOM) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Viper Energy (VNOM) at $36.62 a share. The stock last closed at $39.70, which puts the model's fair value 7.8% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Viper Energy, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 held the fair value at $36.62, within 1% of the run of 24 Oct 2026.
What the model makes of itThe price of $39.70 is 7.8% above it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 22 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 9% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give VNOM?
The calibrated range for VNOM over 63 trading days is $36.11 to $44.61. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that VNOM's own options imply (32% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $27.55 to $48.03. In 21% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Viper Energy, Inc. (VNOM) operates in oil and gas midstream. Viper Energy Partners LP is an entity dedicated to the ownership, acquisition, and development of oil and natural gas assets across North America.
Faircurve's model puts the fair value at $36.62 a share on 31 Oct 2026. This is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $36.29, so the fair value moved +0.9%. No reason is given for this move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $37.48 to $45.93, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply. Calibrated weekly against realised prices, from 6,661 past valuations, ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium. It reflects how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The model scores the company 50 out of 100 on quality, a composite of six factors scored against comparable companies. Growth quality is 97, with trailing revenue growth of 56.6% against a peer median of 5.1%. Earnings quality is 84, with free cash flow to net income of 3.36x against a peer median of 1.13x. Stability is 0, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 18.6 pts against a peer median of 7.1 pts. The model compares the company with DT Midstream, Antero Midstream, ONEOK, Targa Resources, Kinder Morgan, Williams and Dorian LPG.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
The Global Pulse
Faircurve's note after each US session, in your inbox. No account needed.
When does VNOM report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Viper Energy's next earnings report is scheduled for 22 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 6.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. VNOM's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 9.2% over one month.
On 4 Nov 2026 VNOM moved 7.0% in one session, against the 2.5% a day that options had priced: 2.9 times the implied size.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across VNOM's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.3%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in VNOM
How does VNOM score on business quality?
Viper Energy's overall quality score is 50 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 23 | 5.3%ROIC | 10.4% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 84 | 3.36xFCF / net income | 1.13x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 97 | 56.6%Revenue growth, trailing | 5.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 35 | 2.4%Net buybacks / market value | 1.6% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 34 | 1.49xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.05x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 18.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 7.1 pts |
How does VNOM compare with similar companies?
The companies in oil & gas midstream closest to Viper Energy in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DTM DT Midstream, Inc. | $112.88 | $113.90 | +0.9% | Fairly valued |
| AM Antero Midstream Corporation | $19.17 | $22.50 | +17.4% | Undervalued |
| OKE ONEOK, Inc. | $86.25 | $100.54 | +16.6% | Undervalued |
| KNTK Kinetik Holdings Inc. | $49.14 | $44.68 | -9.1% | Low evidence grade |
| TRGP Targa Resources Corp. | $271.82 | $243.89 | -10.3% | Fairly valued |
| KMI Kinder Morgan, Inc. | $30.19 | $29.27 | -3.0% | Fairly valued |
| WMB The Williams Companies, Inc. | $64.25 | $59.55 | -7.3% | Fairly valued |
| LPG Dorian LPG Ltd. | $46.08 | $58.16 | +26.2% | Undervalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for VNOM, the peer-implied price, is $17.61 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Viper Energy at a glance
Viper Energy Partners LP is an entity dedicated to the ownership, acquisition, and development of oil and natural gas assets across North America.
- Market value
- $17.1B
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Midstream
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +86.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 10
- Beta to the US market
- -0.09
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. VNOM was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Viper Energy on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for VNOM was $36.29. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $36.62, a change of +0.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Viper Energy's valuation
Is Viper Energy stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, VNOM reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $36.62 a share against a last close of $39.70, a gap of -7.8%.
What is VNOM's fair value?
$36.62 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $27.55 to $48.03.
What price range does the model give VNOM?
$36.11 to $44.61 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Viper Energy report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 22 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has VNOM moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was -7.4% around the report of 2 Nov 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for VNOM is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on VNOM
The model holds no idea open on VNOM today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on VNOM with their outcomes. A free account is enough.