NYSE: KNTK · Oil & Gas Midstream
Kinetik Holdings (KNTK) fair value and price range
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Kinetik Holdings (KNTK) at $42.63 a share. The stock last closed at $52.53, which puts the model's fair value 18.8% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Kinetik Holdings Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Kinetik Holdings Inc. functions as a midstream energy enterprise, primarily operating within the Texas Delaware Basin.
On 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $42.63 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $44.34, so the fair value moved -3.9%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $35.57 to $51.68, built from the fair value because there is no live options data for the stock, and calibrated weekly against realised prices, 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
The overall quality score is 37 out of 100, against comparable companies. The quality factors include Profitability 8, Earnings quality 16, Growth quality 77, Capital discipline 54, Balance sheet 62, and Stability 42. The model compares it with Dorian LPG Ltd. (LPG), Antero Midstream Corporation (AM), DT Midstream, Inc. (DTM), Viper Energy, Inc. (VNOM), ONEOK, Inc. (OKE), Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP), Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI), and The Williams Companies, Inc. (WMB). Around the last 8 earnings reports, the median size of moves, ignoring direction, was 4.6%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give KNTK?
The calibrated range for KNTK over 63 trading days is $35.57 to $51.68. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is above this range. For names with fair value 15%+ below price, the calibrated range has held the price 39% of the time over 63 trading days, and 59% ended above it; the typical move was −0.5%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $16.48 to $77.31. In 39% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does KNTK score on business quality?
Kinetik Holdings's overall quality score is 37 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 8 | 2.6%ROIC | 9.1% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 16 | 0.41xFCF / net income | 1.13x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 77 | 19.0%Revenue growth, trailing | 6.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 54 | 2.7%Net buybacks / market value | 1.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 62 | 2.71xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.23x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 42 | 2.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.5 pts |
How does KNTK compare with similar companies?
The companies in oil & gas midstream closest to Kinetik Holdings in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LPG Dorian LPG Ltd. | $57.21 | $60.62 | +6.0% | Fairly valued |
| AM Antero Midstream Corporation | $20.36 | $19.26 | -5.4% | Fairly valued |
| DTM DT Midstream, Inc. | $121.00 | $109.52 | -9.5% | Fairly valued |
| VNOM Viper Energy, Inc. | $40.64 | $34.92 | -14.1% | Fairly valued |
| OKE ONEOK, Inc. | $87.88 | $88.86 | +1.1% | Fairly valued |
| TRGP Targa Resources Corp. | $281.74 | $240.44 | -14.7% | Fairly valued |
| KMI Kinder Morgan, Inc. | $31.07 | $27.29 | -12.2% | Fairly valued |
| WMB The Williams Companies, Inc. | $70.54 | $55.93 | -20.7% | Overvalued |
When does KNTK report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Kinetik Holdings's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How KNTK moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.6%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | +3.1% |
| 6 May 2026 | -3.9% |
| 25 Feb 2026 | +6.4% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | -8.4% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | -1.4% |
| 7 May 2025 | -5.3% |
| 26 Feb 2025 | -1.5% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | +12.9% |
Kinetik Holdings at a glance
Kinetik Holdings Inc. functions as a midstream energy enterprise, primarily operating within the Texas Delaware Basin.
- Market value
- $3.9B
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Midstream
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +16.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- -0.02
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Kinetik Holdings on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for KNTK was $44.34. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $42.63, a change of -3.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Kinetik Holdings's valuation
Is Kinetik Holdings stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts KNTK's fair value at $42.63 a share against a last close of $52.53, as of 3 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is KNTK's fair value?
$42.63 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $16.48 to $77.31.
What price range does the model give KNTK?
$35.57 to $51.68 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Kinetik Holdings report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has KNTK moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +12.9% around the report of 6 Nov 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for KNTK is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.