NYSE: APD · Specialty Chemicals
Air Products and Chemicals (APD) fair value and price range
As of 29 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Air Products and Chemicals (APD) at $277.94 a share. The stock last closed at $277.57, which puts the model's fair value 0.1% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 29 Sep 2026
Operating globally, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD) is a prominent supplier of industrial gases, specialized equipment, and associated services.
Faircurve's model on 29 Sep 2026 found a fair value of $277.94 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 26 Sep 2026, gave $280.50, and the fair value moved -0.9%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $233.19 to $338.90, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low.
The overall quality score for the business is 32 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Ecolab Inc. (ECL), The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW), PPG Industries, Inc. (PPG), International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. (IFF), Linde plc (LIN), Albemarle Corporation (ALB), and RPM International Inc. (RPM). The moves around the last 8 earnings reports ranged from -6.8% to +9.3%, with a median size, ignoring direction, of 2.6%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 29 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give APD?
The calibrated range for APD over 63 trading days is $233.19 to $338.90. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $151.11 to $465.89. In 50% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does APD score on business quality?
Air Products and Chemicals's overall quality score is 32 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 0 | -1.1%ROIC | 12.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 100 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 39 | -0.5%Revenue growth, trailing | 2.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 18 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 2.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 15 | 13.24xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.29x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 7 | 10.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.2 pts |
How does APD compare with similar companies?
The companies in specialty chemicals closest to Air Products and Chemicals in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECL Ecolab Inc. | $273.70 | $240.46 | -12.1% | Fairly valued |
| SHW The Sherwin-Williams Company | $319.51 | $315.56 | -1.2% | Fairly valued |
| PPG PPG Industries, Inc. | $105.15 | $129.19 | +22.9% | Undervalued |
| IFF International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. | $82.42 | $77.33 | -6.2% | Fairly valued |
| LYB LyondellBasell Industries N.V. | $58.58 | $57.71 | -1.5% | Low evidence grade |
| LIN Linde plc | $479.48 | $490.58 | +2.3% | Fairly valued |
| ALB Albemarle Corporation | $104.59 | $134.30 | +28.4% | Undervalued |
| RPM RPM International Inc. | $99.19 | $125.23 | +26.3% | Undervalued |
When does APD report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Air Products and Chemicals's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 8.7% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How APD moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.6%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | +0.2% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | -0.5% |
| 30 Jan 2026 | +5.8% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | +9.3% |
| 31 Jul 2025 | -2.9% |
| 1 May 2025 | +2.4% |
| 6 Feb 2025 | -6.8% |
| 7 Nov 2024 | +2.0% |
Air Products and Chemicals at a glance
Operating globally, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD) is a prominent supplier of industrial gases, specialized equipment, and associated services.
- Market value
- $62.7B
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Specialty Chemicals
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $13.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +5.9%
- Analysts with estimates
- 12
- Beta to the US market
- 0.17
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Air Products and Chemicals on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for APD was $280.50. As of 29 Sep 2026 it is $277.94, a change of -0.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Air Products and Chemicals's valuation
Is Air Products and Chemicals stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts APD's fair value at $277.94 a share against a last close of $277.57, as of 29 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is APD's fair value?
$277.94 a share as of 29 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $151.11 to $465.89.
What price range does the model give APD?
$233.19 to $338.90 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Air Products and Chemicals report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has APD moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +9.3% around the report of 6 Nov 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for APD is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.