NYSE: ALB · Specialty Chemicals
Albemarle (ALB) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Albemarle (ALB) at $134.30 a share. The stock last closed at $104.59, which puts the model's fair value 28.4% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Albemarle Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Albemarle Corporation stands as a global innovator, producing and distributing a diverse portfolio of engineered specialty chemicals. Its business operations are divided into three principal segments: Lithium, Bromine, and Catalysts.
On 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $134.30 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -0.6% since the previous run, which gave $135.06 on 19 Sep 2026. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $91.25 to $132.76, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade was Medium.
The model scored Albemarle Corporation's overall quality at 51 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its quality factors included a Profitability score of 23 and an Earnings quality score of 95. The model compares it with RPM International Inc., Element Solutions Inc, NewMarket Corporation, Eastman Chemical Company, and International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports ranged from +4.7% to -5.7%, with a median size of 3.5%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give ALB?
The calibrated range for ALB over 63 trading days is $91.25 to $132.76. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that ALB's own options imply (53% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $81.60 to $214.19. In 63% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does ALB score on business quality?
Albemarle's overall quality score is 51 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 23 | 4.3%ROIC | 8.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 95 | 5.99xFCF / net income | 0.75x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 57 | -4.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 2.0% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 59 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 70 | 0.29xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.06x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 5 | 12.1 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.9 pts |
How does ALB compare with similar companies?
The companies in specialty chemicals closest to Albemarle in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RPM RPM International Inc. | $99.19 | $125.23 | +26.3% | Undervalued |
| SOLS Solstice Advanced Materials Inc. | $57.70 | $56.70 | -1.7% | Low evidence grade |
| LYB LyondellBasell Industries N.V. | $58.58 | $57.71 | -1.5% | Low evidence grade |
| ESI Element Solutions Inc | $37.93 | $30.62 | -19.3% | Overvalued |
| WLK Westlake Corporation | $63.50 | $65.89 | +3.8% | Low evidence grade |
| NEU NewMarket Corporation | $924.06 | $826.50 | -10.6% | Fairly valued |
| EMN Eastman Chemical Company | $64.87 | $70.70 | +9.0% | Fairly valued |
| IFF International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. | $82.42 | $77.33 | -6.2% | Fairly valued |
When does ALB report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Albemarle's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 7.4% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. ALB's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 15.3% over one month.
How ALB moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | +3.8% |
| 6 May 2026 | +1.8% |
| 11 Feb 2026 | -5.7% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | +3.2% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | -5.2% |
| 30 Apr 2025 | -0.2% |
| 12 Feb 2025 | +4.7% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | +0.2% |
Albemarle at a glance
Albemarle Corporation stands as a global innovator, producing and distributing a diverse portfolio of engineered specialty chemicals. Its business operations are divided into three principal segments: Lithium, Bromine, and Catalysts.
- Market value
- $12.9B
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Specialty Chemicals
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $6.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +19.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 10
- Beta to the US market
- 1.53
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Albemarle on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for ALB was $135.06. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $134.30, a change of -0.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Albemarle's valuation
Is Albemarle stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ALB reads as Undervalued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $134.30 a share against a last close of $104.59, a gap of +28.4%.
What is ALB's fair value?
$134.30 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $81.60 to $214.19.
What price range does the model give ALB?
$91.25 to $132.76 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Albemarle report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ALB moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was -5.7% around the report of 11 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ALB is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.